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	<title>Comments on: The Gathering Storm</title>
	<link>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209</link>
	<description>The blog of Commentary Magazine.</description>
	<pubDate>Fri, 16 May 2008 08:12:17 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Dave</title>
		<link>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-122986</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Apr 2008 21:56:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-122986</guid>
		<description>Gas masks aren't for nuclear weapons, or even dirty bombs.  Nothing can stop radiation except heavy metal like lead.  Enough radiation and even lead is insufficient over time.

Gas masks are for biological or chemical weapons.  Who has those?  Who's getting them?  How might they be deployed?  

Lots of wiseacre lefties have decried the effectiveness of such weapons while trying to make Bush look bad over the WMD thing in Iraq, but there is still Halabja to remind us how well then can work when properly deployed.

I take comfort in the tremendous achievements and contributions to the wellbeing of mankind which have emanated from Israel since its founding, which are all the more amazing considering the pressure that little country has felt virtually nonstop over the decades.  It seems a fool's journey, this 'aliyah' thing, and surely a lot of risk-averse Jews have decided against it for exactly that reason... and yet.... science, arts, technology, the list is long and glorious.  What an amazing people.  No other nation has felt such stresses, and many have fallen to pieces under less of it.  But Israel seems to have been destined for legend from the very beginning.  

And as usual, they can rely on nobody but themselves in the end.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gas masks aren&#8217;t for nuclear weapons, or even dirty bombs.  Nothing can stop radiation except heavy metal like lead.  Enough radiation and even lead is insufficient over time.</p>
<p>Gas masks are for biological or chemical weapons.  Who has those?  Who&#8217;s getting them?  How might they be deployed?  </p>
<p>Lots of wiseacre lefties have decried the effectiveness of such weapons while trying to make Bush look bad over the WMD thing in Iraq, but there is still Halabja to remind us how well then can work when properly deployed.</p>
<p>I take comfort in the tremendous achievements and contributions to the wellbeing of mankind which have emanated from Israel since its founding, which are all the more amazing considering the pressure that little country has felt virtually nonstop over the decades.  It seems a fool&#8217;s journey, this &#8216;aliyah&#8217; thing, and surely a lot of risk-averse Jews have decided against it for exactly that reason&#8230; and yet&#8230;. science, arts, technology, the list is long and glorious.  What an amazing people.  No other nation has felt such stresses, and many have fallen to pieces under less of it.  But Israel seems to have been destined for legend from the very beginning.  </p>
<p>And as usual, they can rely on nobody but themselves in the end.</p>
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		<title>By: Gord</title>
		<link>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-121997</link>
		<dc:creator>Gord</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Apr 2008 15:26:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-121997</guid>
		<description>What does it mean?  It means that it is once again up to Israel to do the West's dirty work.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What does it mean?  It means that it is once again up to Israel to do the West&#8217;s dirty work.</p>
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		<title>By: Richard Belzer</title>
		<link>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-121960</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard Belzer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Apr 2008 14:43:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-121960</guid>
		<description>I second Richard's proposal to send Jimmy Carter, provided only that the Iranians keep him.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I second Richard&#8217;s proposal to send Jimmy Carter, provided only that the Iranians keep him.</p>
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		<title>By: Richard</title>
		<link>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-121699</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Apr 2008 09:08:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-121699</guid>
		<description>With due respect to my fellow bloggers I beg to differ. No country in the West has the fortitude to mount such a strike to cripple the Iranian nuclear activities. The USA are in the throes of an economic morass, the EU is just talk and no action. Maybe we should send Jimmy Carter to Tehran to negotiate with the mullahs.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With due respect to my fellow bloggers I beg to differ. No country in the West has the fortitude to mount such a strike to cripple the Iranian nuclear activities. The USA are in the throes of an economic morass, the EU is just talk and no action. Maybe we should send Jimmy Carter to Tehran to negotiate with the mullahs.</p>
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		<title>By: Seth Halpern</title>
		<link>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-120985</link>
		<dc:creator>Seth Halpern</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 05 Apr 2008 13:24:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-120985</guid>
		<description>As was implied in the post, Israel would distribute gas masks no matter who might attack Iran, since the Iranians could  still bomb Israel for propaganda reasons, as  Saddam did  in 1991.  Since this is effectively a tip-off to Teheran, it's also a form of psychological warfare.  Given all the regional, international and tactical issues involved, I still doubt the US would leave this mission to the IAF.  The Sunnis, in particular, don't want A'jad scoring points by making it a purely Israeli thing.  I'm guessing a NATO-style operation is far more likely.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As was implied in the post, Israel would distribute gas masks no matter who might attack Iran, since the Iranians could  still bomb Israel for propaganda reasons, as  Saddam did  in 1991.  Since this is effectively a tip-off to Teheran, it&#8217;s also a form of psychological warfare.  Given all the regional, international and tactical issues involved, I still doubt the US would leave this mission to the IAF.  The Sunnis, in particular, don&#8217;t want A&#8217;jad scoring points by making it a purely Israeli thing.  I&#8217;m guessing a NATO-style operation is far more likely.</p>
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		<title>By: J.E. Dyer</title>
		<link>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-120686</link>
		<dc:creator>J.E. Dyer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Apr 2008 21:18:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-120686</guid>
		<description>The gas mask distribution may also be in anticipation of terrorist threats that Israel has intelligence on -- threats that may emanate from the direction of Syria and Lebanon as well as the Palestinian Arabs.  The Israelis learned long ago that boresighting on one threat was a ticket to disaster.  (Their leaders don't always remember the lesson with the same promptitude of access to memory.)

The Israelis have virtually zero history of trying to influence events with disinformation (hard as Seymour Hersh has tried to generate a myth along those lines).  We can confidently suppose, at least, that they have a valid reason for distributing gas masks.

Two other assessments we can make are the following:

1. Since an Israeli strike would effectively be a one-shot strike, it would be limited to the very highest-value targets.  Israel has the airpower to conduct more comprehensive strikes, but it would still not be possible to do so given the geography and time factor.  Israel will get off, at most, 2-3 waves of strikers before neighboring countries begin scrambling in response, and threatening to shoot Israeli aircraft down.  Israel can't conduct this operation over multiple days, as the US could.

2. Israel’s ability to effectively attack the underground elements of the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz is not the equal of America’s, nor could it be done with the small number of visits Israeli strikers could make to the target.  A full Natanz takedown would require more sorties than Israel can get through to it, even if effective “bunker-busting” bombs could be employed.  Attacking the reactor at Bushehr has its own problems, since it is a live reactor.  Taking it down and rendering it inoperable would be an appropriate job for special forces, and something Israel is well capable of, however.

Whatever Israel is able to do will be a temporary “fix,” one that Iran can recover from by buying more stuff.  The key difference between an Israeli strike and a US attack is the message sent to Russia and China regarding the advisability of helping Iran reconstitute its nuclear program.  A robust US attack would give everyone pause.  Unfortunately, an Israeli attack won’t.  This isn’t Osirak.  The genie is already out of the bottle in Iran.  With this problem, what is needed is comprehensive destruction, the warning that would be to Iran’s enablers, and the implied promise that there will be more to come if Tehran doesn’t change course substantially.

Given the scope of the “thump” that needs to be put on Iran, to effectively suppress her nuclear ambitions – with some hope of permanence – I am hard put to disdain any Israeli planners who might question the utility of making their maximum effort.  If they do decide to do it, though:  Godspeed.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The gas mask distribution may also be in anticipation of terrorist threats that Israel has intelligence on &#8212; threats that may emanate from the direction of Syria and Lebanon as well as the Palestinian Arabs.  The Israelis learned long ago that boresighting on one threat was a ticket to disaster.  (Their leaders don&#8217;t always remember the lesson with the same promptitude of access to memory.)</p>
<p>The Israelis have virtually zero history of trying to influence events with disinformation (hard as Seymour Hersh has tried to generate a myth along those lines).  We can confidently suppose, at least, that they have a valid reason for distributing gas masks.</p>
<p>Two other assessments we can make are the following:</p>
<p>1. Since an Israeli strike would effectively be a one-shot strike, it would be limited to the very highest-value targets.  Israel has the airpower to conduct more comprehensive strikes, but it would still not be possible to do so given the geography and time factor.  Israel will get off, at most, 2-3 waves of strikers before neighboring countries begin scrambling in response, and threatening to shoot Israeli aircraft down.  Israel can&#8217;t conduct this operation over multiple days, as the US could.</p>
<p>2. Israel’s ability to effectively attack the underground elements of the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz is not the equal of America’s, nor could it be done with the small number of visits Israeli strikers could make to the target.  A full Natanz takedown would require more sorties than Israel can get through to it, even if effective “bunker-busting” bombs could be employed.  Attacking the reactor at Bushehr has its own problems, since it is a live reactor.  Taking it down and rendering it inoperable would be an appropriate job for special forces, and something Israel is well capable of, however.</p>
<p>Whatever Israel is able to do will be a temporary “fix,” one that Iran can recover from by buying more stuff.  The key difference between an Israeli strike and a US attack is the message sent to Russia and China regarding the advisability of helping Iran reconstitute its nuclear program.  A robust US attack would give everyone pause.  Unfortunately, an Israeli attack won’t.  This isn’t Osirak.  The genie is already out of the bottle in Iran.  With this problem, what is needed is comprehensive destruction, the warning that would be to Iran’s enablers, and the implied promise that there will be more to come if Tehran doesn’t change course substantially.</p>
<p>Given the scope of the “thump” that needs to be put on Iran, to effectively suppress her nuclear ambitions – with some hope of permanence – I am hard put to disdain any Israeli planners who might question the utility of making their maximum effort.  If they do decide to do it, though:  Godspeed.</p>
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		<title>By: Tian Li</title>
		<link>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-120664</link>
		<dc:creator>Tian Li</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Apr 2008 20:37:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-120664</guid>
		<description>Iran is nothing more than a serogate for the strategic energy interests of Comminist China and its other energy supplier the "emerging Communist" Russia.

Iran is becomming another North Korea but with energy clout.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Iran is nothing more than a serogate for the strategic energy interests of Comminist China and its other energy supplier the &#8220;emerging Communist&#8221; Russia.</p>
<p>Iran is becomming another North Korea but with energy clout.</p>
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		<title>By: Lawrence Gulotta</title>
		<link>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-120623</link>
		<dc:creator>Lawrence Gulotta</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Apr 2008 19:35:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-120623</guid>
		<description>Israel will turn 60 this year. This is (and should be) a cause for celebration! 

How deeply disturbing it is therefore, that after 60-years, this neighborhood is far from  safe and Israel is far from secure.

The world is a dangerous place: How many cyclotrons does Iran have operational, now?
The threat is real, I agree totally. 

Is war or continued diplomacy the solution? 

The Israelis have so much at risk that any miscalculation of strategy or tatics could prove devestating for Israel. 

I just don't believe that distributing gas masks to the civilian population is a sign of anything, except paranoid behavior.  What type of security will gas masks provide the Israelis?

How could nuclear disarmament ever become an achievable goal in the Middle East? 

Would Israel be more or less secure if an intermediary Sunni power, such as Saudi Arabia acquired the bomb? (They could just buy one, you know.)

Would the Iranians risk nuclear brinkmanship in the Region, if there were a Sunni Islamic atomic bomb to deal with in close range?

We should believe the threats Iran makes against Israel. No hiding our heads in the sand! Never again, 1938! 

What on earth are the Iranian wisemen thinking of when they call for taking on a very heavily armed nuclear Israeli? It is a complete mismatch--with Israel, fortunately, so much stronger and more powerful than Iran.  

The war-like braggadaccio of on-line posters notwithstanding, Israel is the super power in the Middle East with a good ally, the hyper-super-power, the USA.

I agree the Persians have a vision of  empire building. That vision will be very short-lived if Israel really thought there were a chance it would be the target of Iran's "baby Shi'a Islamic bomb"--once Iran can actually produce a weapon, of course. 

Put aside for a moment the domestic political denunciations and calumny of the presidential campaign. Ask yourself, "Is the West really going to war--conventional or nuclear, with Iran, if it aquires an atomic weapon? 

History shows that the likely reaction will be "quarantine the country." With nuclear missiles at our door steps during the Cuban missle crisis, the US did not launch an invasion of the Island or bomb Havana. The powers found a back door out of the crisis. 

At the 60th anniversary of the creation of the State of Israel, I can't believe there isn't a back door to open, somewhere.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Israel will turn 60 this year. This is (and should be) a cause for celebration! </p>
<p>How deeply disturbing it is therefore, that after 60-years, this neighborhood is far from  safe and Israel is far from secure.</p>
<p>The world is a dangerous place: How many cyclotrons does Iran have operational, now?<br />
The threat is real, I agree totally. </p>
<p>Is war or continued diplomacy the solution? </p>
<p>The Israelis have so much at risk that any miscalculation of strategy or tatics could prove devestating for Israel. </p>
<p>I just don&#8217;t believe that distributing gas masks to the civilian population is a sign of anything, except paranoid behavior.  What type of security will gas masks provide the Israelis?</p>
<p>How could nuclear disarmament ever become an achievable goal in the Middle East? </p>
<p>Would Israel be more or less secure if an intermediary Sunni power, such as Saudi Arabia acquired the bomb? (They could just buy one, you know.)</p>
<p>Would the Iranians risk nuclear brinkmanship in the Region, if there were a Sunni Islamic atomic bomb to deal with in close range?</p>
<p>We should believe the threats Iran makes against Israel. No hiding our heads in the sand! Never again, 1938! </p>
<p>What on earth are the Iranian wisemen thinking of when they call for taking on a very heavily armed nuclear Israeli? It is a complete mismatch&#8211;with Israel, fortunately, so much stronger and more powerful than Iran.  </p>
<p>The war-like braggadaccio of on-line posters notwithstanding, Israel is the super power in the Middle East with a good ally, the hyper-super-power, the USA.</p>
<p>I agree the Persians have a vision of  empire building. That vision will be very short-lived if Israel really thought there were a chance it would be the target of Iran&#8217;s &#8220;baby Shi&#8217;a Islamic bomb&#8221;&#8211;once Iran can actually produce a weapon, of course. </p>
<p>Put aside for a moment the domestic political denunciations and calumny of the presidential campaign. Ask yourself, &#8220;Is the West really going to war&#8211;conventional or nuclear, with Iran, if it aquires an atomic weapon? </p>
<p>History shows that the likely reaction will be &#8220;quarantine the country.&#8221; With nuclear missiles at our door steps during the Cuban missle crisis, the US did not launch an invasion of the Island or bomb Havana. The powers found a back door out of the crisis. </p>
<p>At the 60th anniversary of the creation of the State of Israel, I can&#8217;t believe there isn&#8217;t a back door to open, somewhere.</p>
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		<title>By: David Thomson</title>
		<link>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-120542</link>
		<dc:creator>David Thomson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Apr 2008 17:10:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-120542</guid>
		<description>"Waiting until after the U.S. elections would seem to add risk to risk."

I am adamantly convinced that Israel must strike Iran before the elections in the United States.  The possibility of a dishonest pacifist Democrat residing in the White House will almost certainly prove disastrous.  Today's Democrats are the progeny of the isolationists who unwittingly helped Adolph Hitler gain power.  Deep in their guts, they believe that military violence is never really justified.  One merely needs to acquire further training in soft power techniques.  Democrats are especially unwilling to confront evil committed by dark skinned individuals.  These people are deemed to be legitimately enraged by our imperialist policies of the past.  Being nice to them and offering reparations should be sufficient to turn them into warm and cuddly pacifists.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Waiting until after the U.S. elections would seem to add risk to risk.&#8221;</p>
<p>I am adamantly convinced that Israel must strike Iran before the elections in the United States.  The possibility of a dishonest pacifist Democrat residing in the White House will almost certainly prove disastrous.  Today&#8217;s Democrats are the progeny of the isolationists who unwittingly helped Adolph Hitler gain power.  Deep in their guts, they believe that military violence is never really justified.  One merely needs to acquire further training in soft power techniques.  Democrats are especially unwilling to confront evil committed by dark skinned individuals.  These people are deemed to be legitimately enraged by our imperialist policies of the past.  Being nice to them and offering reparations should be sufficient to turn them into warm and cuddly pacifists.</p>
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		<title>By: Anthony (Los Angeles)</title>
		<link>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-120512</link>
		<dc:creator>Anthony (Los Angeles)</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Apr 2008 16:27:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-120512</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;What does the decision mean?&lt;/i&gt;

That Ahmadinejad had better review where his local air-raid shelter is?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>What does the decision mean?</i></p>
<p>That Ahmadinejad had better review where his local air-raid shelter is?</p>
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		<title>By: Dellis</title>
		<link>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-120448</link>
		<dc:creator>Dellis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Apr 2008 14:20:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/schoenfeld/3209#comment-120448</guid>
		<description>It would make a lot more sense for Israel to launch this strike than America. Israel is already at war with Iran on two fronts - Hamas and Hezebollah. Given that Israel is already at war with Iran, one wonders what additional warlike measures Iran will take. Will Hezebollah and Hamas attack? This would be a blessing in disguise in a way, because it would allow Israel to decimate these organizations without restraint. 

Israel is in far more danger from Iran's nuclear weapons than America. Unfortunately, America could conduct these strikes more effectively than Israel. It will be interesting, and somewhat terrifying, to find out what happens over the coming months.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It would make a lot more sense for Israel to launch this strike than America. Israel is already at war with Iran on two fronts - Hamas and Hezebollah. Given that Israel is already at war with Iran, one wonders what additional warlike measures Iran will take. Will Hezebollah and Hamas attack? This would be a blessing in disguise in a way, because it would allow Israel to decimate these organizations without restraint. </p>
<p>Israel is in far more danger from Iran&#8217;s nuclear weapons than America. Unfortunately, America could conduct these strikes more effectively than Israel. It will be interesting, and somewhat terrifying, to find out what happens over the coming months.</p>
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