The Shia Awakening
- 10.17.2007 - 3:21 PMAfter returning to the U.S. from my summer trip to Baghdad and Ramadi, I wrote a piece for the New York Daily News that warned against bingeing on optimism in the wake of the surge. I wrote this despite the dramatic turnaround in Iraq’s Anbar Province. The abject defeat of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s al Qaeda in Iraq in and around Anbar’s capital of Ramadi is stunning, but local. The fight still rages on elsewhere, and in each place it is different. In early 2007, Ramadi was the most violent city in all of Iraq. It was also, counterintuitively, the easiest city to win.
Al Qaeda had seized it and declared it the capital of their so-called “Islamic State in Iraq.” Local tribal leaders and civilians initially welcomed al Qaeda as liberators against the hated American occupiers, but later rejected them after al Qaeda behaved like…al Qaeda, and launched a horrific murder and intimidation campaign against everyone who opposed them. “It was basically a hostile fascist takeover of the city,” Army Captain Jay McGee told me.
Zarqawi’s lieutenants make up a relatively small percentage of the “insurgency” in Iraq, but they are by far the most psychotic and destructive. No one should be surprised that they were expelled from Anbar. They went at the Iraqis with car bombs and kitchen knives. They sawed off the heads of children as well as adults. They murdered entire families just for making eye contact with American soldiers. The Iraqis in Ramadi had little choice but to form an alliance with Americans, in order to purge these killers from their lands.
However, as I wrote in late August, “what worked in Ramadi might not work in Baghdad. [Moqtada al-Sadr’s radical Shia] Mahdi Army’s relative moderation, compared with al Qaeda’s brutality, prevents it from being rejected by the entire society.”
I may have been too pessimistic and given Sadr’s militia more credit than it deserves.
The New York Times reported last week that many Shias in Baghdad, including some tribal sheikhs, are now turning against the Mahdi Army and working with the Americans to evict them. Sadr’s base is collapsing from right underneath him, and it’s a direct result of the successful assault on radical Sunnis by General Petraeus’s surge forces and the Mahdi Army itself.
The Mahdi Army picked up substantial local support thanks to its defense of Shias from Sunni insurgents and death squads. Neither the American soldiers nor the Iraqi security forces were able to secure the streets of the neighborhoods, so Sadr’s militia was called on for the job. Many portions of Baghdad have since been purged of Sunni extremists, partly due to the notorious sectarian “cleansing” and population transfers. The Mahdi Army is a victim of its own success, in a way: it has outlived its perceived usefulness and has degenerated into an ideology-free gang of murderous street thugs who do not want to let go of power. A militia need not be as deranged as al Qaeda to wear out its welcome, even in Baghdad.
Sadr’s army has been opposed by a substantial number of Shias all along. The new opposition comes from his base, and includes several sheikhs who supported him not long ago.
It’s hard for Americans to appreciate just how much power sheikhs have in Iraq. What they say goes. I spent a week in the Graya’at neighborhood of Baghdad, where every sheikh had come around to the American side. Earlier this year they insisted that not a single shot shall be fired at American soldiers, and not a single shot has been fired since. When they say it’s time to join Moqtada al-Sadr, or it’s time to join the Americans, nearly every person under their authority does what they say.
In the parts of Iraq where the locals turn against the insurgents en masse, it is only a matter of time before the insurgents are finished. Civilians phone in actionable intelligence on the locations of safe houses, weapons caches, IED’s, and everything else.
The radical Sunnis in Iraq are the most vicious. It is logical, then, that they are being defeated first. Extremist Shias have been tougher because they are more moderate, as well as more numerous. But defeating Sunni insurgents knocks out support from under the radical Shias. If you’re looking for a reason to hope in Iraq, that is it.
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October 17th, 2007 at 4:26 PM
Thanks for the report and the good news, Mr. Totten. Would you say that the American policy of trying to be seen as friends coming in to purge a disease, so to speak, rather than occupiers coming in simply to take over the country, is finally bearing fruit? (Or am I completely off base somewhere? :P)
October 17th, 2007 at 6:24 PM
I’m grateful to Contentions for having Michael Totten as a contributor. Michael ranks with the top reporters from the Middle East.
October 18th, 2007 at 1:08 AM
Looks like reality….
….is beginning to sink in in the Middle East.
Tags: terrorism
October 18th, 2007 at 2:03 AM
Would you say that the American policy of trying to be seen as friends coming in to purge a disease, so to speak, rather than occupiers coming in simply to take over the country, is finally bearing fruit?
With some Iraqis, yes, I know it is. With the majority? Probably not, at least not yet.
October 18th, 2007 at 7:11 AM
Mr. Totten,
Many of us here at US Central Command Headquarters read your dispatches and articles regularly. When I was first assigned here, it was easy to become discouraged during the morning updates. However, over the last six months we have seen a dramatic change that the mainstream media seems reluctant to cover. About the only noticeable trace of “good news” in many publications and news programs is the relative lack of reporting on attacks in Iraq–less bad news–less overall reporting. It is gratifying to see independent journalists like you and Michael Yon dig into both the day-to-day actions around Iraq, as well as the underlying causes for the trends up or down in violence. Iraq has a future. It is up to us to determine whether that is a long uphill climb or a swift descent into anarchy. There will be no quick success, just as there was no quick success in South Korea after the armistice nor in the Balkans after the Dayton Accords.
October 18th, 2007 at 8:27 AM
what is going on with al-sadr we have not much about him since he was to stop the attacts for 6 months. you have to wonder if he is planning something or has he lost power. If he lost power what caused this. What do think will happen when the 6 month mark is up. As for the corruption in the iraq goverment is it getting better or worse? I liked yor article on the peace corp with muscle. I would like to see more positve articles
October 18th, 2007 at 12:02 PM
Michael, your insightful contributions to the media coverage of the fight in Iraq are valuable beyond measure. Keep up the great work.
October 18th, 2007 at 12:28 PM
Does the growing Shiite rejection of Sadr’s army translate into a rejection of Iranian influence as well? I’m not sure where you’re at now, but I had heard some concerns that there could be growing Iranian influence in Basra, which could make the calm there deceptive. Do you have any insight on that?
The nuclear threat of Iran in league with Syria and North Korea, coupled with the impotence of the UN Security Council, especially with Russian veto power, is looking pretty ominous right now. I hope and pray we don’t have to deal with Iran militarily and especially if all our gains in Iraq are at stake. Are they? How do Iraqis, and particularly Shiites, view Ahmedinejad’s nuclear ambitions and Iranian interference in Iraq? If we had to use military means to stop Iran from getting nuclear bombs, would we lose the Shiites in Iraq again?
Thanks for your reporting. It’s so refreshing to get real input without all the mass media emotion substituting for facts.
October 18th, 2007 at 12:48 PM
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October 19th, 2007 at 7:48 PM
so the shia get freedom and start making money.
thats amazing to imagine compared to how they used to live.
and now they need to start pumping lotsa oil and bring the price of oil down.
then i wont have to pay $3 bucks a gallon and this will have all been worth it.
here’s hoping.
my gut feeling is that behind all of this the momentum of the enemy is petering out almost apathetically. like they are melting away. the press here doesnt say anything about it. its almost crickets.
doesnt helping send fighters in from the neighboring countries keep iraqi oil off the market?
if the insurgency can be backed off enough to get the country rolling economically, this might be what gets the republicans the wh. or maybe backfires and puts the complacent electorate to sleep..
i know the words will never show up in the msm, but i love it that we’re shutting down these ghouls and snapping dogs down. hooah hooah.
man, this must piss off the turbines in teheran.