The Associated Press is the latest to discover the potential for a Republican takeover of Congress:
Almost by the day, Republicans are sensing fresh opportunities to pick up ground. Just Wednesday, former Indiana Sen. Dan Coats announced he would try to reclaim his old seat from Democrat Evan Bayh, who barely a year ago had been a finalist to be Barack Obama’s running mate. And Republicans nationwide are still celebrating Scott Brown’s January upset to take Edward Kennedy’s former seat in Massachusetts.
A Republican takeover on Capitol Hill is still a long shot. But strategists in both parties now see at least narrow paths by which the GOP could win the House and, if the troubled environment for Democrats deteriorates further, possibly even the Senate.
The AP is a little less candid about the reasons, however. You see, it’s “the persistent 10 percent unemployment rate, the country’s bitterness over Wall Street bailouts and voters’ anti-Washington fervor. Obama’s party, controlling both the White House and Congress, is likely to feel that fury the most. And it’s defending far more seats than the Republicans.” But why, then, is the generic congressional polling number tilting in the Republicans’ favor, a historic anomaly? Could it have something to do with what the Democrats have done in the last year? Read More
Stuart Rothenberg tells us:
Democratic desperation and other compelling evidence strongly suggest that Democrats may well lose the late Senator Edward Kennedy’s Senate seat in Tuesday’s special election. Because of this, we are moving our rating of the race from Narrow Advantage for the Incumbent Party to Toss-Up.
The Democrats, belatedly wise to the very real chance they’ll lose what should have been a slam-dunk seat for them, are flooding the airwaves with negative ads. (Creigh Deeds did the same thing in Virginia, which only served to confirm that he had no message of his own.) Rothenberg is skeptical that this will work:
Late Democratic efforts to demonize Republican Scott Brown, to make the race into a partisan battle and to use the Kennedy name to drive Democratic voters to the polls could still work. But the advertising clutter in the race works against them, and voters often tune out late messages, which can seem desperate.
What several weeks ago seemed like a conservative pipe dream — a Republican win in Massachusetts — is now a real possibility. And if it should come about, prepare for a tsunami to hit Washington D.C. The realization will surely sink in for each incumbent Democrat: if the Massachusetts’ Senate seat isn’t safe, then neither is theirs. And those who want to vote for ObamaCare and the rest of the Left-leaning agenda had better consider the political consequences.