Insider Advantage, which has been pretty good at picking up on pro-Gingrich trends early in Florida and South Carolina, shows Mitt Romney surging back into the lead in its latest poll:

An InsiderAdvantage/Florida Times-Union poll released Wednesday night of likely GOP voters shows Romney with 40 percent support to Gingrich’s 32 percent. …

Gingrich’s momentum ebbed though after a debate Monday where Romney hit him hard for his ties to Freddie Mac, calling him an “influence-peddler.” Romney has also launched multiple ads attacking Gingrich. Florida’s expensive media market gives the Romney campaign which holds an edge in fundraising the advantage. Additionally, a quarter million absentee ballots have already been cast, many when Romney enjoyed double-digit leads in state polls.

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Finally, Mitt Romney gets a poll this week that actually shows him in the lead. Unfortunately for him, this Quinnipiac survey still shows a major deterioration in his lead since early January, now that the momentum has shifted to Newt Gingrich:

The final tally is 36 percent for Romney to 34 percent for Gingrich among likely voters in the Florida Republican presidential primary, but Gingrich gets 40 percent to 34 percent for Romney among likely voters surveyed after the South Carolina primary.

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Now more than ever, Mitt Romney needs to hammer home the argument that he’s more electable than Newt Gingrich in a general election. But it will be increasingly difficult for him with polls like these:

Among overall Americans, Romney’s favorability rating — a measure of broad acceptability — has dropped eight points since earlier this month, to 31 percent. His unfavorable rating has jumped 15 points, to 49 percent. That’s a net swing of 23 points. His negative rating now tops 50 among independents.

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Mitt Romney is releasing his 2010 tax return Tuesday morning, but he gave several media outlets a sneak peek at the document and his 2011 tax return estimates late Monday. Based on the information released so far, it’s a wonder why he didn’t do this weeks ago. There aren’t many surprises here, unless it comes as a shock to some that Romney’s obscenely rich. He paid a 13.9 percent tax rate in 2010, mainly on capital gains, and expects to pay 15.9 percent in 2011. But the angle he’ll likely play up is his large charitable donations, which actually surpass the amount he paid in taxes:

The couple gave away $7 million in charitable contributions over the past two years, including at least $4.1 million to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Romney’s family has for generations been among the Mormon Church’s most prominent members.

The Romneys sent somewhat less to Washington over that period, paying an estimated $6.2 million in federal income taxes. According to his 2010 return, Romney paid about $3 million to the IRS, for an effective tax rate of 13.9 percent.

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It looks like that surprising Insider Advantage poll Jonathan cited earlier today wasn’t a fluke. Rasmussen Reports just released a survey that also shows Newt Gingrich leading Mitt Romney by nine points in Florida, a massive turnaround from two weeks ago:

Less than two weeks ago, Mitt Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, but that’s ancient history in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Following his big win in South Carolina on Saturday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now is on top in Florida by nine.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41 percent of the vote with Romney in second at 32 percent. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11 percent, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.

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In Florida yesterday, Mitt Romney rolled out some new, aggressive attacks on Newt Gingrich:

“We’re not choosing a talk show host,” Romney said, alluding to his rival’s strong debate performances that helped shift momentum in his favor in South Carolina. “We’re choosing the person who should be leader of the free world.” …

“At the end of four years as speaker of the House, it was proven that he was a failed leader,” Romney said. “He had to resign in disgrace. I don’t know whether you knew that.… His fellow Republicans – 88 percent of his Republicans – voted to reprimand Speaker Gingrich. He has not had a record of successful leadership.”

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Today’s Rasmussen poll appears to confirms what other surveys have been showing the past day and a half. Newt Gingrich is surging in South Carolina, and now holds a small lead on Mitt Romney:

Gingrich……33%
Romney……31%
Paul…………15%
Santorum….11%
Perry…………2%
Other…………1%
Not Sure…….6%

With just two days until South Carolina voters head to the polls, those numbers could still shift significantly the next 48-hours. As Jonathan wrote earlier, Gingrich will almost certainly get a boost from Rick Perry’s exit and endorsement.

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