Commentary Magazine


Topic: job creation

It’s Getting Late Early for Obama’s Economy

For some liberal political strategists, the focus on the monthly federal jobs report that will come out later this morning is much ado about not all that very much. The unemployment and job creation numbers are, they say, just statistics that don’t necessarily tell us all that much about the economy and perhaps even less about the sentiment of voters. To which the sensible observer can only respond: Like hell, they don’t.

The question about why we’re all so obsessed with economic statistics this summer was the conceit of a New York Times feature that served to preview the latest jobs report due out on the first Friday of every month. According to many of those quoted by the paper, the problem with the jobs numbers obsession is they aren’t a true measure of the worthiness of President Obama’s economic program. Their fear is that the latest report as well as those that preceded it and those that will follow in the coming months may merely reflect a caprice of fortune in which a few ill-timed economic statistics can ruin the chances of an otherwise praiseworthy president to gain re-election. The experts consulted seem divided between those who think the predictive power of these stats is overrated and those who think they do mean a lot but aren’t necessarily fair to the president.

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For some liberal political strategists, the focus on the monthly federal jobs report that will come out later this morning is much ado about not all that very much. The unemployment and job creation numbers are, they say, just statistics that don’t necessarily tell us all that much about the economy and perhaps even less about the sentiment of voters. To which the sensible observer can only respond: Like hell, they don’t.

The question about why we’re all so obsessed with economic statistics this summer was the conceit of a New York Times feature that served to preview the latest jobs report due out on the first Friday of every month. According to many of those quoted by the paper, the problem with the jobs numbers obsession is they aren’t a true measure of the worthiness of President Obama’s economic program. Their fear is that the latest report as well as those that preceded it and those that will follow in the coming months may merely reflect a caprice of fortune in which a few ill-timed economic statistics can ruin the chances of an otherwise praiseworthy president to gain re-election. The experts consulted seem divided between those who think the predictive power of these stats is overrated and those who think they do mean a lot but aren’t necessarily fair to the president.

But this analysis misses the obvious. The numbers matter because they are the tangible measure of the success or failure of any administration in proving the country is in better shape than it was when they took over the big fancy offices in Washington after the last presidential election. If voters take these numbers seriously, it’s because along with personal experiences, they help form the voters’ overall impression of the state of the economy. The key here is not so much the details of each report as it is the trajectory of the nation’s finances. Moreover, given the fact that we are just four months away from the November election, it’s that point in time when, in the immortal words of Yogi Berra, politicians begin to understand that “it gets late early out there.” Once the electorate accepts the verdict that the economy is either on the decline or on the rise, a possible change in the fall (with the exception perhaps of a collapse on Wall Street such as occurred in September 2008) is unlikely.

If, as some economists think and worried Democrats fear, the jobs reports will continue to spread gloom, attempts to spin the statistics as either arbitrary or misleading won’t work. Nor will President Obama’s claim the economy has been recovering for three years on his watch. If three straight summers of recovery leave the country in worse shape than the president found it in January 2009, then the only arguments to be made for his re-election will revolve around the historic nature of his presidency and attempts to smear Republican candidate Mitt Romney. Though it will, as Bill Kristol rightly noted yesterday, take more than a bad economy to elect Romney, a president who can’t run on his record in the midst of an ongoing economic crisis isn’t likely to be re-elected.

President Obama will have to hope the July numbers will be kind to him and pray the first Friday of August and September will not do him more damage. But whether they help or hurt him, it’s no good for Democrats to pretend the sinking employment figures aren’t a fair measure of the administration’s competence.

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Gallup: 57% Favor Keystone Construction

Not surprisingly, the support is highest among Republicans. But a majority of independents and plurality of Democrats support the pipeline construction as well, highlighting just how much of a political miscalculation President Obama made by standing in the way of the Keystone XL.

And while Obama has claimed his objections to the pipeline stem from concern over the safety of the proposed route, the Keystone XL receives the highest support in the states it would cut through. The reason is obvious: the pipeline would bring jobs to areas of the country that badly need them.

The pipeline would travel through the Midwest and the South, and Americans in those two regions are the most likely to approve of the project. Nearly 7 in 10 Midwesterners want the government to approve the building of the pipeline and 61% of those in the South do as well. There has been discussion in Washington and in the media about the potential new jobs the pipeline project would create, which may partly explain the higher support seen in those regions. Americans in the West and East are less likely to approve.

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Not surprisingly, the support is highest among Republicans. But a majority of independents and plurality of Democrats support the pipeline construction as well, highlighting just how much of a political miscalculation President Obama made by standing in the way of the Keystone XL.

And while Obama has claimed his objections to the pipeline stem from concern over the safety of the proposed route, the Keystone XL receives the highest support in the states it would cut through. The reason is obvious: the pipeline would bring jobs to areas of the country that badly need them.

The pipeline would travel through the Midwest and the South, and Americans in those two regions are the most likely to approve of the project. Nearly 7 in 10 Midwesterners want the government to approve the building of the pipeline and 61% of those in the South do as well. There has been discussion in Washington and in the media about the potential new jobs the pipeline project would create, which may partly explain the higher support seen in those regions. Americans in the West and East are less likely to approve.

The pressure is mounting on Obama, and he’s turning to his usual defense strategy of shifting the blame. According to the president, the Republicans are responsible for killing the Keystone XL permit, and all because they wanted to play politics with the issue:

Deep in Republican oil country, Obama said lawmakers refused to give his administration enough time review the controversial Keystone pipeline in order to ensure that it wouldn’t compromise the health and safety of people living in surrounding areas.

“Unfortunately, Congress decided they wanted their own timeline,” Obama said. “Not the company, not the experts, but members of Congress who decided this might be a fun political issue decided to try to intervene and make it impossible for us to make an informed decision.”

How’s that for projection? Obama created this entire mess for himself by playing politics in the first place. He didn’t want to make a decision on an issue that pitted two of his major groups of supporters against each other during an election year, so he tried to extend the evaluation process until 2013. All Republicans forced him to do was make a decision. And unfortunately for him, he chose the side that the majority of Americans now say they disagree with.

The Obama campaign obviously realizes how toxic this issue is for the president, or they wouldn’t have him out on the campaign trail trying to frantically spin his administration’s energy failures. How desperate is his campaign getting? Based on this video of Obama’s stump speech, it looks like they’re on the edge of panic mode:

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