Commentary Magazine


Topic: jobs

The Growth Figures

New gross domestic product figures for the first quarter of 2014 were released this morning by the Commerce Department and they are dismal, a mere 0.1 percent growth. This was way below what economists had been expecting (the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists had predicted a less-than-stellar 1.1 percent) and even more below the pace of the last half of 2013, which was 3.4 percent.

To be sure, it was a brutal winter in much of the country this year, but these figures are seasonally adjusted, to reflect normal winter slowdown in such industries as construction. Had it not been for considerably above normal spending on energy to heat homes, which caused consumer spending to rise by 3 percent (it rose 3.3 percent in the last quarter of 2013), the figures would have been worse.

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New gross domestic product figures for the first quarter of 2014 were released this morning by the Commerce Department and they are dismal, a mere 0.1 percent growth. This was way below what economists had been expecting (the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists had predicted a less-than-stellar 1.1 percent) and even more below the pace of the last half of 2013, which was 3.4 percent.

To be sure, it was a brutal winter in much of the country this year, but these figures are seasonally adjusted, to reflect normal winter slowdown in such industries as construction. Had it not been for considerably above normal spending on energy to heat homes, which caused consumer spending to rise by 3 percent (it rose 3.3 percent in the last quarter of 2013), the figures would have been worse.

Business investment in such things as equipment and buildings fell 2.1 percent from the last quarter. Exports fell a startling 7.6 percent, the largest drop since the recession officially ended in June 2009 and reflecting lackluster economic growth abroad. Imports fell much less, only 1.4 percent.

To be sure, economists expect GDP growth to pick up next quarter, in part because the spending that was delayed this winter by the awful weather will be made up this spring and summer. But this continues a worrying pattern of not only lackluster growth overall, but very erratic growth, as can be seen in this chart from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is not at all typical of a recovery from a deep recession, which usually shows strong and steady growth.

Democrats had better pray that this is a blip in the statistics. Two more quarters like this and November will be an ugly political month for them.

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America’s Still-Weak Economy

Friday’s job report, which showed that 165,000 jobs were created in April and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.5 percent, was greeted by many news outlets as wonderful news. It’s not clear to me why.

I’ll happily concede that the jobs report indicates that the economy is not in immediate danger of lurching into another recession. And it’s true that the stock market is doing very well, with the Dow having crossed 15,000 for the first time. 

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Friday’s job report, which showed that 165,000 jobs were created in April and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.5 percent, was greeted by many news outlets as wonderful news. It’s not clear to me why.

I’ll happily concede that the jobs report indicates that the economy is not in immediate danger of lurching into another recession. And it’s true that the stock market is doing very well, with the Dow having crossed 15,000 for the first time. 

At the same time, we’re now nearly four years after the recession officially ended. Historically, the worse the recession, the better the recovery. But not in the age of Obama. Over the last year we created substantially less than 200,000 jobs a month (173,000). In addition, the number of hours worked in April declined–an indication that we’re seeing a rise in part-time, not full-time, jobs. (This phenomenon may well include the effect of the Affordable Care Act on small businesses.)

Moreover, (a) the civilian workforce participation rate remained at a 34-year low (63.3 percent); (b) last week the U.S. home-ownership rate fell to the lowest in almost 18 years; and (c) growth is anemic. As I mentioned in a previous post, Jeff Cox, a CNBC senior writer, earlier this week wrote, “In terms of actual growth, this is … the worst economy in 83 years. GDP growth is in the midst of its longest sub-3 percent annual growth rate since 1929, the beginning of the Great Depression.”

We are now almost four years after the official end of the recession, and over the last year the economy has grown at less than 2 percent (1.8 percent). In addition, as James Pethokoukis points out, the U.S. lost 8.8 million private sector jobs during the Great Recession. Since the beginning of the jobs recovery, we have gained back 6.8 million, leaving a gap of about 2 million. 

On Friday we received a mediocre jobs report that is indicative of a mediocre economy. What is unfortunate is that this is the best that President Obama can claim after more than four years in office.

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Poll: Raising Taxes on Rich Isn’t Priority

Today’s Gallup poll found that on a list of 12 voting priorities, raising taxes on the wealthy comes in last place, with 49 percent of respondents saying it’s “very” or “extremely” important.

The first five, in order, are “creating good jobs” (92 percent), “reducing corruption in federal government” (87 percent), “reducing the federal budget deficit” (86 percent), “dealing with terrorism and other international threats” (86 percent) and “ensuring the long-term stability of Social Security and Medicaid” (85 percent). Gallup concludes with this analysis:

Americans’ to-do list for the president on Jan. 20, 2013 — whether it be Obama or Romney — includes creating good jobs, reducing government corruption, and reducing the federal budget deficit. Supporters of both candidates agree about the importance of jobs and corruption, while the deficit is a higher priority for Romney supporters than Obama supporters. In turn, Obama supporters believe the next president should have healthcare, Social Security and Medicare, and public education among his highest priorities.

Job creation has certainly been and will continue to be a major topic during the remainder of the campaign. And both candidates will surely need to outline their plans for reducing the federal budget deficit. However, it is unclear whether government corruption will become a major issue in the campaign, even though Americans see reducing it as an important goal.

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Today’s Gallup poll found that on a list of 12 voting priorities, raising taxes on the wealthy comes in last place, with 49 percent of respondents saying it’s “very” or “extremely” important.

The first five, in order, are “creating good jobs” (92 percent), “reducing corruption in federal government” (87 percent), “reducing the federal budget deficit” (86 percent), “dealing with terrorism and other international threats” (86 percent) and “ensuring the long-term stability of Social Security and Medicaid” (85 percent). Gallup concludes with this analysis:

Americans’ to-do list for the president on Jan. 20, 2013 — whether it be Obama or Romney — includes creating good jobs, reducing government corruption, and reducing the federal budget deficit. Supporters of both candidates agree about the importance of jobs and corruption, while the deficit is a higher priority for Romney supporters than Obama supporters. In turn, Obama supporters believe the next president should have healthcare, Social Security and Medicare, and public education among his highest priorities.

Job creation has certainly been and will continue to be a major topic during the remainder of the campaign. And both candidates will surely need to outline their plans for reducing the federal budget deficit. However, it is unclear whether government corruption will become a major issue in the campaign, even though Americans see reducing it as an important goal.

The biggest surprise is that “reducing corruption in the federal government” ranks so high. Gallup’s March poll on voter priorities apparently didn’t include that issue in its survey on voters’ top 15 concerns. It would be interesting to know if concerns about government corruption are growing, and if so, if it has anything to do with the actions of the Obama administration. But clearly there seems to be a lot of untapped anxiety about this. The Romney campaign hasn’t spent much time hitting Obama over Fast and Furious and Solyndra, though you can bet with these poll numbers Romney is going to start. Not only is Obama’s biggest campaign issue (taxes on the rich) a nonstarter with the public, the corruption issue is untread territory that’s ripe for GOP attacks.

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November Surprise?

Last week, I wrote about how the sequester will trigger the WARN Act, which requires employers to warn staff of pending layoffs a minimum of 60 days in advance. That means potentially hundreds of thousands of public and private sector workers would receive layoff warning notices on November 2 — 60 days before sequestration hits, and just five days before the presidential election.

Needless to say, this is a BFD for President Obama. So you may not be too shocked to learn that the administration might be pressuring employers to delay these notices until after Election Day. HotAir’s Tina Korbe flags this key item in Sen. Jim Inhofe’s floor speech last week:

“I have every reason to believe, because I’ve heard from people in industry, that the president of the United States is trying to get them to avoid sending pink slips out until after the November 7 election,” said Inhofe.  “I would remind him that we have something called the Workers Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act, the WARN Act.  It requires these companies to give 60 days’ notice of pending layoffs.

“Since sequestration will take place on January 2, these workers must be notified of their pink slip by November 2.  This is what I’d like to remind those companies:  they don’t have to wait. If they want to notify workers today, they can do that. I think it is imperative that the workers who are going to be laid off work as a result of the Obama Sequestration be notified in advance of the November election. We’re going to do everything we can to make sure that happens.”

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Last week, I wrote about how the sequester will trigger the WARN Act, which requires employers to warn staff of pending layoffs a minimum of 60 days in advance. That means potentially hundreds of thousands of public and private sector workers would receive layoff warning notices on November 2 — 60 days before sequestration hits, and just five days before the presidential election.

Needless to say, this is a BFD for President Obama. So you may not be too shocked to learn that the administration might be pressuring employers to delay these notices until after Election Day. HotAir’s Tina Korbe flags this key item in Sen. Jim Inhofe’s floor speech last week:

“I have every reason to believe, because I’ve heard from people in industry, that the president of the United States is trying to get them to avoid sending pink slips out until after the November 7 election,” said Inhofe.  “I would remind him that we have something called the Workers Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act, the WARN Act.  It requires these companies to give 60 days’ notice of pending layoffs.

“Since sequestration will take place on January 2, these workers must be notified of their pink slip by November 2.  This is what I’d like to remind those companies:  they don’t have to wait. If they want to notify workers today, they can do that. I think it is imperative that the workers who are going to be laid off work as a result of the Obama Sequestration be notified in advance of the November election. We’re going to do everything we can to make sure that happens.”

As Inhofe says, failing to send the layoff notices a minimum of 60 days in advance would be a violation of the WARN Act; and the last thing these companies want is a slew of employee lawsuits to compound their budget cuts. One thing is clear — if sequestration is to take place, the massive impact on the job market will be felt before the election. Potentially just days before.

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Outsourcer-in-Chief

President Obama’s outsourcing talking points have been silly and intellectually dishonest even by the standards of political rhetoric, which is saying something. Bain Capital isn’t in the business of creating jobs, it’s in the business of maximizing return on capital. Its principals would be violating their fiduciary duty to their investors if they maximized U.S. job creation instead. Investing overseas is not outsourcing. Outsourcing results in lower costs (otherwise, why outsource?) which means lower prices, which means that American consumers have more money to spend on other goods and services, which creates more American jobs. And so on and on.

But there is a major outsourcer running for president, one who has prevented tens of thousands of American jobs from being created and who has sent those jobs overseas instead. It is not Mitt Romney.

Obama’s obsession with “green energy,” and opposition to traditional fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, has resulted in a significant drop in permits for drilling on federal land. These permits increased 58 percent under President Clinton, 116 percent under Bush and are down 36 percent under Obama. But energy is a fundamental economic input. So, for every barrel of oil that is not explored for here, it is explored for in some other country. Every well not drilled here, is drilled there.

And that means that good jobs that could be American ones are not, because Obama won’t let those jobs be created here. On a visit to Brazil, he told the Brazilian president that he looked forward to America being a big customer for the oil coming out of Brazil’s spectacular new offshore oil fields. There is considerable evidence that we, too, have spectacular offshore oil fields. But Obama would rather see Brazilian oilfield workers be paid good wages than American ones.

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President Obama’s outsourcing talking points have been silly and intellectually dishonest even by the standards of political rhetoric, which is saying something. Bain Capital isn’t in the business of creating jobs, it’s in the business of maximizing return on capital. Its principals would be violating their fiduciary duty to their investors if they maximized U.S. job creation instead. Investing overseas is not outsourcing. Outsourcing results in lower costs (otherwise, why outsource?) which means lower prices, which means that American consumers have more money to spend on other goods and services, which creates more American jobs. And so on and on.

But there is a major outsourcer running for president, one who has prevented tens of thousands of American jobs from being created and who has sent those jobs overseas instead. It is not Mitt Romney.

Obama’s obsession with “green energy,” and opposition to traditional fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, has resulted in a significant drop in permits for drilling on federal land. These permits increased 58 percent under President Clinton, 116 percent under Bush and are down 36 percent under Obama. But energy is a fundamental economic input. So, for every barrel of oil that is not explored for here, it is explored for in some other country. Every well not drilled here, is drilled there.

And that means that good jobs that could be American ones are not, because Obama won’t let those jobs be created here. On a visit to Brazil, he told the Brazilian president that he looked forward to America being a big customer for the oil coming out of Brazil’s spectacular new offshore oil fields. There is considerable evidence that we, too, have spectacular offshore oil fields. But Obama would rather see Brazilian oilfield workers be paid good wages than American ones.

Despite the best efforts of the Obama administration and its environmentalist allies, the country is undergoing a huge energy boom on lands that Obama does not control. North Dakota is now number three among the states in oil production, surpassing California, thanks to the Bakken oil field. Oil imports are down from 60 percent of annual consumption to 45 percent in just a few years and are sure to fall further. Vast new gas fields, made accessible by hydraulic fracturing (fracking) has caused a dramatic fall in the price of natural gas. One result is that for the first time, coal is no longer the dominant fuel in electricity generation, natural gas—far lower in carbon emissions—now is.

This is no small part of the reason that carbon emissions in this country are falling, not rising. In 2007 they were 6.02 billion metric tons. In 2011 they were 5.473 billion metric tons, down almost ten percent in five years. This year they are down another 7.5 percent over the first quarter last year. In other words, carbon emissions in 2012 will be down to a level lower than when the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997. It’s one of the great success stories to come out of the U.S. energy boom (although a weak economy has contributed, to be sure). But because it doesn’t fit the green agenda—they’d rather build windmills and tilt at fossil fuels—it’s been a non-story.

It is capitalism that is lowering American carbon emissions, not government edict. It is government that is sending American jobs overseas.

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Obama Acknowledges Tax Cuts Create Jobs

On Monday, President Obama slammed Mitt Romney’s economic plan before an Ohio audience: “By eliminating taxes on corporations’ foreign income,” said Obama, “Governor Romney’s plan would actually encourage companies to shift more of their operations to foreign tax havens, creating 800,000 jobs in those other countries.”

Forget the campaign implications and forget the fact-check analysis. Simply take Obama’s accusation at face value. He is acknowledging—no, trumpeting—that cutting corporate taxes creates jobs. Eight hundred thousand of them.

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On Monday, President Obama slammed Mitt Romney’s economic plan before an Ohio audience: “By eliminating taxes on corporations’ foreign income,” said Obama, “Governor Romney’s plan would actually encourage companies to shift more of their operations to foreign tax havens, creating 800,000 jobs in those other countries.”

Forget the campaign implications and forget the fact-check analysis. Simply take Obama’s accusation at face value. He is acknowledging—no, trumpeting—that cutting corporate taxes creates jobs. Eight hundred thousand of them.

If his charge against Romney is legitimate, and Romney’s proposed tax cuts would create jobs in the wrong country, why doesn’t Obama switch the target of the cuts and create those jobs here? He has said job creation is his number-one priority, and given his admitted understanding of the relationship between tax cuts and job creation, what’s stopping him from going beyond the Bush tax cuts and slashing us back to a healthy America?

The answer: class warfare and its political utility. Sure, tax cuts would put America to work, but the Buffett Rule would create the impression of fairness. And fairness is what Obama’s reelection campaign is all about. So after accusing Romney of job creation through tax cuts, the president will seamlessly return to making sure that “the rich pay their fair share” and ensuring that the jobs numbers keep dropping. The only thing worse than Obama’s keeping Americans unemployed owing to ideological confusion is his doing so out of political cynicism.

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The Dismal May Employment Figures

Only 69,000 jobs were created in May, the worst number in a year, and far below what economists had been expecting (the consensus forecast was for about 150,000 new jobs). Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.2 percent from 8.1. That’s the first actual increase in unemployment in 11 months. Stock market futures, already considerably down, plunged further with the news. Gold ticked up, and the ten-year bond fell to a record low of 1.46 percent (i.e., lend the federal government $1,000 and they will pay you a snappy $14.60 in interest per year).

The recovery, mediocre at best, has now appeared to stall, especially with jobs numbers for March and April revised downward (April’s were cut from 115,000 to 77,000, March’s from 154,000 to 143,000.) Europe’s numbers were even more dismal, with euro-zone unemployment now at 11 percent, the worst since the number was first calculated in 1995.

With Europe teetering on the edge of a financial meltdown, the head of the European Central Bank is telling political leaders to do something and do it now:

In a warning to political leaders, Mr. Draghi told members of the European Parliament on Thursday that the central bank is reaching the limits of its powers and now it is up to politicians to move quickly and decisively because the survival of the euro, the Continent’s common currency, is at stake. The structure of the currency union, he said, had become “unsustainable unless further steps are undertaken.”

These numbers are a disaster for the Obama re-election campaign. Indeed, unless they improve and improve soon, and unless European leaders take Lady Macbeth’s advice and screw their courage to the sticking place—not something for which European leaders have been noted of late—a year from now a Romney administration may be talking about the difficulty of dealing with the mess they inherited.

Only 69,000 jobs were created in May, the worst number in a year, and far below what economists had been expecting (the consensus forecast was for about 150,000 new jobs). Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.2 percent from 8.1. That’s the first actual increase in unemployment in 11 months. Stock market futures, already considerably down, plunged further with the news. Gold ticked up, and the ten-year bond fell to a record low of 1.46 percent (i.e., lend the federal government $1,000 and they will pay you a snappy $14.60 in interest per year).

The recovery, mediocre at best, has now appeared to stall, especially with jobs numbers for March and April revised downward (April’s were cut from 115,000 to 77,000, March’s from 154,000 to 143,000.) Europe’s numbers were even more dismal, with euro-zone unemployment now at 11 percent, the worst since the number was first calculated in 1995.

With Europe teetering on the edge of a financial meltdown, the head of the European Central Bank is telling political leaders to do something and do it now:

In a warning to political leaders, Mr. Draghi told members of the European Parliament on Thursday that the central bank is reaching the limits of its powers and now it is up to politicians to move quickly and decisively because the survival of the euro, the Continent’s common currency, is at stake. The structure of the currency union, he said, had become “unsustainable unless further steps are undertaken.”

These numbers are a disaster for the Obama re-election campaign. Indeed, unless they improve and improve soon, and unless European leaders take Lady Macbeth’s advice and screw their courage to the sticking place—not something for which European leaders have been noted of late—a year from now a Romney administration may be talking about the difficulty of dealing with the mess they inherited.

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Economic Shoes Are Dropping

If the stock market is truly a leading indicator (and it tends to be one of the more reliable ones), then the Obama campaign had better start worrying. May has been a brutal month for the Dow. It closed May 1 at 13,279. As it approached noon today, it’s at 12,360, down 59 on the day. That’s a decline of 7.1 percent for the month, wiping out all the gains since Jan. 1.

The reasons, of course, are not hard to find: the crisis in Europe, lackluster economic data in general, a sharp drop in consumer confidence in May, an uptick in weekly jobless claims, and more.

Perhaps the biggest news is the drop in bond rates. The benchmark ten-year treasury bond is currently yielding 1.53 percent. On July 1 last year, the ten-year treasury was yielding 3.2 percent, more than twice as much. This is good news and bad news. The good news is that the federal government can finance its huge deficits more easily (and consumers can borrow more cheaply as well: mortgage rates are at near record lows). But the bad news is that bond yields go down for two reasons: a slowing economy and/or a financial crisis. As nervous investors seek safe haven, demand for treasuries rises, pushing down yields. (French and German bond rates are also very low for the same reason, yielding 2.35 percent and an astonishing 1.24 percent respectively.)

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If the stock market is truly a leading indicator (and it tends to be one of the more reliable ones), then the Obama campaign had better start worrying. May has been a brutal month for the Dow. It closed May 1 at 13,279. As it approached noon today, it’s at 12,360, down 59 on the day. That’s a decline of 7.1 percent for the month, wiping out all the gains since Jan. 1.

The reasons, of course, are not hard to find: the crisis in Europe, lackluster economic data in general, a sharp drop in consumer confidence in May, an uptick in weekly jobless claims, and more.

Perhaps the biggest news is the drop in bond rates. The benchmark ten-year treasury bond is currently yielding 1.53 percent. On July 1 last year, the ten-year treasury was yielding 3.2 percent, more than twice as much. This is good news and bad news. The good news is that the federal government can finance its huge deficits more easily (and consumers can borrow more cheaply as well: mortgage rates are at near record lows). But the bad news is that bond yields go down for two reasons: a slowing economy and/or a financial crisis. As nervous investors seek safe haven, demand for treasuries rises, pushing down yields. (French and German bond rates are also very low for the same reason, yielding 2.35 percent and an astonishing 1.24 percent respectively.)

But countries at the heart of the crisis are not faring so well. Spain is not borrowing so cheaply, to put it mildly. Its current rate on ten-year bonds is 6.67 percent, more than five times what Germany has to pay to borrow. Spanish banking is near collapse and the country is in deep recession. If Spain were unable to meet its obligations and rescue its banking sector, it would be a much bigger deal than Greece’s problems. At about $1.5 trillion, its economy is five times the size of the Greek economy. Not even Germany (the world’s fourth largest economy) can write a check that big.

All eyes will be on tomorrow’s release of the jobs report for May, at 8:30 a.m., an hour before the market opens. But there are a lot of other economic shoes to drop in the next few weeks. As Bette Davis, playing Margot Channing, said in “All About Eve”: “Fasten your seat belts. It’s going to be a bumpy night.”

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The Damaging Effects of Obamanomics

According to a recent Washington Post story,

The proportion of Americans in their prime working years who have jobs is smaller than it has been at any time in the 23 years before the recession, according to federal statistics, reflecting the profound and lasting effects that the downturn has had on the nation’s economic prospects.

By this measure, the jobs situation has improved little in recent years. The percentage of workers between the ages of 25 and 54 who have jobs now stands at 75.7 percent, just a percentage point over what it was at the downturn’s worst, according to federal statistics.

Before the recession the proportion hovered at 80 percent.

While the unemployment rate may be the most closely watched gauge of the economy in the presidential campaign, this measure of prime-age workers captures more of the ongoing turbulence in the job market. It reflects “missing workers” who have stopped looking for work and aren’t included in the unemployment rate.

During their prime years, Americans are supposed to be building careers and wealth to prepare for their retirement. Instead, as the indicator reveals, huge numbers are on the sidelines.

“What it shows is that we are still near the bottom of a very big hole that opened in the recession,” said Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank.

The Post story goes on to point out that the percentage of prime-age men who are working is smaller now than it has been in any time before the recession, going all the way back to 1948, while the proportion of prime-age women is at a low not seen since 1988. A 50-year-old heating and AC technician from Alexandria, Virginia, was out of work in 2009 but found a job right away. He was laid off again about six months ago and, standing outside the Alexandria unemployment office, said it seems harder this time around.

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According to a recent Washington Post story,

The proportion of Americans in their prime working years who have jobs is smaller than it has been at any time in the 23 years before the recession, according to federal statistics, reflecting the profound and lasting effects that the downturn has had on the nation’s economic prospects.

By this measure, the jobs situation has improved little in recent years. The percentage of workers between the ages of 25 and 54 who have jobs now stands at 75.7 percent, just a percentage point over what it was at the downturn’s worst, according to federal statistics.

Before the recession the proportion hovered at 80 percent.

While the unemployment rate may be the most closely watched gauge of the economy in the presidential campaign, this measure of prime-age workers captures more of the ongoing turbulence in the job market. It reflects “missing workers” who have stopped looking for work and aren’t included in the unemployment rate.

During their prime years, Americans are supposed to be building careers and wealth to prepare for their retirement. Instead, as the indicator reveals, huge numbers are on the sidelines.

“What it shows is that we are still near the bottom of a very big hole that opened in the recession,” said Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank.

The Post story goes on to point out that the percentage of prime-age men who are working is smaller now than it has been in any time before the recession, going all the way back to 1948, while the proportion of prime-age women is at a low not seen since 1988. A 50-year-old heating and AC technician from Alexandria, Virginia, was out of work in 2009 but found a job right away. He was laid off again about six months ago and, standing outside the Alexandria unemployment office, said it seems harder this time around.

“The economy is just really messed up right now,” he said.

Indeed it is.

Yesterday, we also learned that Americans’ confidence in the economy suffered the biggest drop in eight months. The Conference Board said that its Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 64.9, down from 68.7 in April. “Consumers were less positive about current business and labor market conditions, and they were more pessimistic about the short-term outlook,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board.

These are more signs (as if we needed them) that the economic recovery under Obama is historically weak. With a little more than five months left in the election, there’s nothing the president seems able to do about it. And the human suffering caused by his misguided policies continues to mount.

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Another Dismal Jobs Report

The monthly jobs report, released on the first Friday of every month, came out at 8:30 this morning, and it isn’t pretty. While the unemployment rate ticked down to 8.1 percent, that was largely because people dropped out of the workforce rather than people finding jobs. The broader measure of unemployment, which counts people in part-time jobs who would rather work full-time, remains at a dismal 14.5 percent. The percentage of the population in the workforce dropped to a 30-year low at 64.3 percent, as 522,000 people left the labor force.

Only 115,000 new jobs were created last month (130,000 in the private sector, while government lost 15,000 jobs) and, thanks to population growth, the country needs 125,000 new jobs a month just to keep the unemployment rate steady.

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The monthly jobs report, released on the first Friday of every month, came out at 8:30 this morning, and it isn’t pretty. While the unemployment rate ticked down to 8.1 percent, that was largely because people dropped out of the workforce rather than people finding jobs. The broader measure of unemployment, which counts people in part-time jobs who would rather work full-time, remains at a dismal 14.5 percent. The percentage of the population in the workforce dropped to a 30-year low at 64.3 percent, as 522,000 people left the labor force.

Only 115,000 new jobs were created last month (130,000 in the private sector, while government lost 15,000 jobs) and, thanks to population growth, the country needs 125,000 new jobs a month just to keep the unemployment rate steady.

This is the third year in a row that job growth, after a promising start in the early months of the year, stalled in the spring. But this isn’t any year. It’s a year divisible by 4. In six months, President Obama has to face an electorate that has lived through the most sluggish recovery since the Great Depression lingered on and on in the 1930’s. And Obama is no FDR (nor does Mitt Romney have anything in common with Alf Landon except party registration).

 

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