Commentary Magazine


Topic: Kansas primary

Delegate Math Not Altered By Kansas

The biggest prize in the assortment of various states and territories up for grabs in the Republican presidential contests this weekend went to Rick Santorum, who took Kansas with another smashing victory. The former senator got more than 51 percent of the vote, with Mitt Romney placing a distant second and barely eclipsing the 20 percent mark that was necessary for him to win some delegates there. But while another showing in which evangelical support led to a victory bolstered Santorum, the delegate math wasn’t altered much by the results. Santorum got 33 of Kansas’ delegates to the Republican National Convention with Romney picking up just 7. But while Santorum was winning Kansas, Romney cleaned up in Wyoming as well as in Guam, the Northern Marianas and the U.S. Virgin Islands, nearly offsetting the Pennsylvanian’s advantage. When the dust settles, Romney will still have more delegates than all of his GOP rivals combined.

Romney is clearly on track to win enough delegates to clinch the nomination at the Tampa convention, but he will do so without sweeping the GOP board as conservatives continue to rally around Santorum as not only the leading “not Romney” but also as their standard-bearer on social issues. Far from being discouraged, the Pennsylvanian’s backers are doubling down on their determination to fight Romney all the way to the convention while also seeking to find some way to persuade Newt Gingrich to leave the race and thus allow Santorum the opportunity for a one-on-one battle with the frontrunner. Though the ultimate outcome is not much in doubt, Republicans appear set to spend the next few months in engaging in a long drown-out struggle that will leave the victor in a weakened state to face off against President Obama in the fall.

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The biggest prize in the assortment of various states and territories up for grabs in the Republican presidential contests this weekend went to Rick Santorum, who took Kansas with another smashing victory. The former senator got more than 51 percent of the vote, with Mitt Romney placing a distant second and barely eclipsing the 20 percent mark that was necessary for him to win some delegates there. But while another showing in which evangelical support led to a victory bolstered Santorum, the delegate math wasn’t altered much by the results. Santorum got 33 of Kansas’ delegates to the Republican National Convention with Romney picking up just 7. But while Santorum was winning Kansas, Romney cleaned up in Wyoming as well as in Guam, the Northern Marianas and the U.S. Virgin Islands, nearly offsetting the Pennsylvanian’s advantage. When the dust settles, Romney will still have more delegates than all of his GOP rivals combined.

Romney is clearly on track to win enough delegates to clinch the nomination at the Tampa convention, but he will do so without sweeping the GOP board as conservatives continue to rally around Santorum as not only the leading “not Romney” but also as their standard-bearer on social issues. Far from being discouraged, the Pennsylvanian’s backers are doubling down on their determination to fight Romney all the way to the convention while also seeking to find some way to persuade Newt Gingrich to leave the race and thus allow Santorum the opportunity for a one-on-one battle with the frontrunner. Though the ultimate outcome is not much in doubt, Republicans appear set to spend the next few months in engaging in a long drown-out struggle that will leave the victor in a weakened state to face off against President Obama in the fall.

Kansas provides the latest evidence that Santorum’s ability to rally the conservative base to his standard is no longer in question. And after a gathering with his major backers in Texas this weekend in which more money was raised for his super PAC to spend on his candidacy, there is also no doubt he has the resources to stay in the race, albeit on not equal terms with the better-funded Romney. With a new Chicago Tribune poll showing him in striking distance of Romney in Illinois, another month of bruising big-state confrontations between the two is guaranteed.

But Gingrich’s determination to stay in the GOP mix presents a formidable obstacle to Santorum’s goal of a matchup against Romney. Tuesday’s contests in Mississippi and Alabama both look to be close, with any one of the three contenders having a chance. The good news for Romney is not just that polls show him ahead in Mississippi and even with the others in Alabama, but that two out of the three possible outcomes benefit him. If he wins in either or both states, it shows he has the ability to win in the South and demonstrates he can win GOP primaries in any part of the country. But he also benefits from a Gingrich win in either state, as a victory for the former speaker in any state from here on out will be all he will need to convince himself he should stay in the race.

On Thursday, Santorum hinted that he would consider Gingrich as his putative running mate. Such a bargain might present a unified conservative front against Romney, but it’s not clear this would be enough to persuade Gingrich to give up. Santorum can only hope that a collapse of the Georgian’s campaign after losses in Mississippi and Alabama will persuade him there is no reason to go on.

Yet no matter what Gingrich decides to do this week, it appears the narrative of the GOP race is now set. Romney will go on picking up the delegates that will eventually enable him to clinch the nomination though he has little hope of that happening before June. At the same time, Santorum will go on presenting him with a formidable challenge that will make it clear Romney hasn’t clinched the deal with his party’s base.

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