Commentary Magazine


Topic: Larry J. Sabato

The Harvard Law Review Must Be Aghast

In the ongoing debate over Obama’s attack on the Supreme Court, the president seems not to be faring all that well. Politico’s forum on the subject contains a range of criticisms. They fall into several categories.

First, it was arrogant and careless of Obama to call out the Supreme Court — and not get his facts right. Dan Perino observes: “Misrepresenting a complicated legal opinion is dicey — but doing so in a prime-time address to a nation where the authors of that opinion are in the front row leaves you rightly exposed to criticism.” The president and his minions have gotten used to their sheltered existence and being immune to criticism. You can almost hear them reassuring themselves, “It’s not like one of the justices is going to object!” Well, he did, and that’s what comes from assuming the president can be cavalier with the truth.

Second, it was rude to berate the Court in public, treating the justices as errant political functionaries rather than interpreters of the Constitution. Larry J. Sabato, hardly a fire-breathing conservative, makes some unfavorable comparisons:

Mr. Obama’s blunt attack on the Court’s ruling, with the members sitting in front of him, was no doubt stunning and unsettling to some, and it contradicted his frequent calls for bipartisanship and civility. It also reminded me of President Andrew Jackson’s remark that, “Chief Justice Marshall has made his decision. Now let him enforce it.” Others may have remembered Massive Resistance and the disrespect shown to earlier Courts when they made unpopular rulings about race.

And third, Obama is playing with fire — and talking nonsense when he dares Congress to “respond” to a First Amendment ruling with legislation. This was not a statutory interpretation — as was the Equal Pay Act, which begat the Lilly Ledbetter legislation — that is amenable to a legislative fix. In such a case, the Court says, “We think the statute says X.” The Congress is then free to say, “No, we really meant Y, and here’s the amended law to make that explicit.” What sort of legislative response would there be to “The First Amendment does not permit limits on corporations and unions exercising core political speech”? Boston College law professor Richard Albert explains:

By emphatically urging Congress to pass a bill reversing what he views as the Supreme Court’s misguided judgment–“a bill that helps to right this wrong,” in the President’s own words–the President undermined two sacred institutions in American constitutional government: the separation of powers and judicial independence.

A University of Virginia Law School professor asks whether Obama is seriously entertaining the view that Congress should “challenge the Supreme Court’s ruling and its constitutional interpretive supremacy.” We don’t know, because Obama, one suspects, doesn’t take what he’s saying seriously. He’s simply inciting the mob.

In all this, one thing is rather clear: Obama has harmed himself. In playing fast and loose with the facts and the law, he has diminished not the Court but himself. He seems to prefer Huey Long to Lawrence Tribe as his role model. His elite university pals and media sycophants who marveled at his Harvard-honed intellect and supposed temperamental superiority must be shuddering.

In the ongoing debate over Obama’s attack on the Supreme Court, the president seems not to be faring all that well. Politico’s forum on the subject contains a range of criticisms. They fall into several categories.

First, it was arrogant and careless of Obama to call out the Supreme Court — and not get his facts right. Dan Perino observes: “Misrepresenting a complicated legal opinion is dicey — but doing so in a prime-time address to a nation where the authors of that opinion are in the front row leaves you rightly exposed to criticism.” The president and his minions have gotten used to their sheltered existence and being immune to criticism. You can almost hear them reassuring themselves, “It’s not like one of the justices is going to object!” Well, he did, and that’s what comes from assuming the president can be cavalier with the truth.

Second, it was rude to berate the Court in public, treating the justices as errant political functionaries rather than interpreters of the Constitution. Larry J. Sabato, hardly a fire-breathing conservative, makes some unfavorable comparisons:

Mr. Obama’s blunt attack on the Court’s ruling, with the members sitting in front of him, was no doubt stunning and unsettling to some, and it contradicted his frequent calls for bipartisanship and civility. It also reminded me of President Andrew Jackson’s remark that, “Chief Justice Marshall has made his decision. Now let him enforce it.” Others may have remembered Massive Resistance and the disrespect shown to earlier Courts when they made unpopular rulings about race.

And third, Obama is playing with fire — and talking nonsense when he dares Congress to “respond” to a First Amendment ruling with legislation. This was not a statutory interpretation — as was the Equal Pay Act, which begat the Lilly Ledbetter legislation — that is amenable to a legislative fix. In such a case, the Court says, “We think the statute says X.” The Congress is then free to say, “No, we really meant Y, and here’s the amended law to make that explicit.” What sort of legislative response would there be to “The First Amendment does not permit limits on corporations and unions exercising core political speech”? Boston College law professor Richard Albert explains:

By emphatically urging Congress to pass a bill reversing what he views as the Supreme Court’s misguided judgment–“a bill that helps to right this wrong,” in the President’s own words–the President undermined two sacred institutions in American constitutional government: the separation of powers and judicial independence.

A University of Virginia Law School professor asks whether Obama is seriously entertaining the view that Congress should “challenge the Supreme Court’s ruling and its constitutional interpretive supremacy.” We don’t know, because Obama, one suspects, doesn’t take what he’s saying seriously. He’s simply inciting the mob.

In all this, one thing is rather clear: Obama has harmed himself. In playing fast and loose with the facts and the law, he has diminished not the Court but himself. He seems to prefer Huey Long to Lawrence Tribe as his role model. His elite university pals and media sycophants who marveled at his Harvard-honed intellect and supposed temperamental superiority must be shuddering.

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Forty Seats in Play for GOP — and It’s Still January

The Cook Political Report tells us that Democrats currently occupy 40 of the 50 House seats designated as “toss-up” or “leans.” (He has also moved the North Dakota Senate seat from “leans Republican” to “solid Republican.”) That is a rather remarkable finding, and it’s only January:

Of the 50 currently competitive seats, Democrats occupy 40 (80 percent), exactly the number of seats Republicans need to gain to steal the House majority. Of the 60 potentially competitive seats, Democrats occupy 45 (75 percent), a figure that underscores Democrats’ overexposed position in the House today.

It is important to note that while one party has never won all of the competitive races in any given election cycle (currently Republicans would need to win all 50 competitive seats to win 218 seats in the House), the likelihood of one or two dozen potentially competitive Democratic seats entering the danger zone at some point in this cycle is high.

Moreover, it’s important to note that this is just the current snapshot, and those GOP openings could multiply. Looking over those early projections of GOP pickups, Larry J. Sabato reminds us :

Could it go higher? Sure, if the economy remains weak, President Obama’s popularity falls further, or (God forbid) a terrorist attack boomerangs on the administration. It could also go lower, if the economic recovery takes off and some other big things go the president’s way.

And that’s just the point. At the Crystal Ball we’re delighted to have been on the mark in both our final 2006 and 2008 projections. But those projections were issued at campaign’s end. Early predictions are like winter snow. They are probably going to melt away by spring, much less summer or fall. What were the various “political ratings newsletters” projecting for Democratic House gains in January 2006? Single digit additions. Democrats ended up +30.

Now, that cuts both ways. Democrats this time around have plenty of time to prepare and adjust course. Unlike the GOP, which was caught by surprise in 2006, the Democrats understand all too well their peril. They could try to save some of those seats by shifting gears and pulling some members back from the brink. But they’ll need to get going and begin shedding their reputation of being ultra-liberal busybodies. And ramming through ObamaCare probably isn’t the way to do it. Should they “succeed” in that gambit, Sabato and Cook will probably need to start adjusting their projections.

The Cook Political Report tells us that Democrats currently occupy 40 of the 50 House seats designated as “toss-up” or “leans.” (He has also moved the North Dakota Senate seat from “leans Republican” to “solid Republican.”) That is a rather remarkable finding, and it’s only January:

Of the 50 currently competitive seats, Democrats occupy 40 (80 percent), exactly the number of seats Republicans need to gain to steal the House majority. Of the 60 potentially competitive seats, Democrats occupy 45 (75 percent), a figure that underscores Democrats’ overexposed position in the House today.

It is important to note that while one party has never won all of the competitive races in any given election cycle (currently Republicans would need to win all 50 competitive seats to win 218 seats in the House), the likelihood of one or two dozen potentially competitive Democratic seats entering the danger zone at some point in this cycle is high.

Moreover, it’s important to note that this is just the current snapshot, and those GOP openings could multiply. Looking over those early projections of GOP pickups, Larry J. Sabato reminds us :

Could it go higher? Sure, if the economy remains weak, President Obama’s popularity falls further, or (God forbid) a terrorist attack boomerangs on the administration. It could also go lower, if the economic recovery takes off and some other big things go the president’s way.

And that’s just the point. At the Crystal Ball we’re delighted to have been on the mark in both our final 2006 and 2008 projections. But those projections were issued at campaign’s end. Early predictions are like winter snow. They are probably going to melt away by spring, much less summer or fall. What were the various “political ratings newsletters” projecting for Democratic House gains in January 2006? Single digit additions. Democrats ended up +30.

Now, that cuts both ways. Democrats this time around have plenty of time to prepare and adjust course. Unlike the GOP, which was caught by surprise in 2006, the Democrats understand all too well their peril. They could try to save some of those seats by shifting gears and pulling some members back from the brink. But they’ll need to get going and begin shedding their reputation of being ultra-liberal busybodies. And ramming through ObamaCare probably isn’t the way to do it. Should they “succeed” in that gambit, Sabato and Cook will probably need to start adjusting their projections.

Read Less

Flotsam and Jetsam

What would 1.5 million pennies look like? “It’s a school project spearheaded by seventh-grade Spotlight students currently studying World War II — with a significant focus on the Holocaust. Each penny would stand for one child lost in the Holocaust. ‘The pennies will be used in an online museum,’ Horn Lake Spotlight teacher Susan Powell said. ‘We will host a (virtual) room, and this is being done through an organization (Christian Friends of Israel) in Memphis. We are going to assist them. The kids are brainstorming on what to do with the pennies.’ ” Read the whole thing.

Arnold terminates his support for ObamaCare: “You’ve heard of the bridge to nowhere. This is health care to nowhere.” And the backroom deals this time are more noxious.

Liz Cheney has good advice for Obama: “If President Obama is serious about keeping the American people safe, he should reverse his irresponsible and ill-advised decision to close the Guantanamo Bay detention facility. He should reverse his decision to usher terrorists from Guantanamo onto U.S. soil. He should reverse his decision to bring the mastermind of 9/11, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, to New York. He should reverse his decision to give KSM and other terrorists the rights of Americans and the benefit of a criminal trial in an American civilian court. He should immediately classify Abdulmutallab, the Christmas Day bomber, as an illegal enemy combatant, not a criminal defendant.” (She also has some advice for Eric Holder, including halting his investigations of CIA officials and lawyers who saved American lives.) I’d wager that very large majorities of Americans agree with her.

Haaretz reports that Rahm Emanuel said he is fed up with Israelis. (It’s mutual, pal.) And the Palestinians. And the whole Middle East peace process. The White House denies he said it.

Larry J. Sabato’s take: “A multi-seat gain for the GOP in the Senate is now the best bet. … Now we can all see clearly why President Obama is pushing so hard for his agenda in his first two years. He’s unlikely ever again to have anything approaching his current 20-seat margin in the Senate and 40-seat margin in the House.”

Alert David Brooks: Sarah Palin is headlining a Tea Party Convention.

Mickey Kaus thinks Janet Napolitano actually helps Obama. “Loyal cabinet secretaries should take the blame–and the PR hit–for their agency’s mistakes. The President stays as far away from the bad thing as possible, even when the White House is in reality intimately involved.” I dunno. I think having dopey advisers — e.g., Alberto Gonzales — just fuels the “executive incompetence” meme.

When he’s not bending the cost curve: “President Obama’s budget guru has a secret love child — with the woman he jilted before hooking up with his hot new fiance [sic], The Post has learned.”

Big Labor spent millions electing Obama, and this is the thanks it gets: “President Barack Obama signaled to House Democratic leaders Wednesday that they’ll have to drop their opposition to taxing high-end health insurance plans to pay for health coverage for millions of uninsured Americans. In a meeting at the White House, Obama expressed his preference for the insurance tax contained in the Senate’s health overhaul bill, but largely opposed by House Democrats and organized labor, Democratic aides said.” Oh yes, that’s a lot of people making less than $200,000 who are going to get taxed, despite Obama’s campaign promise.

What would 1.5 million pennies look like? “It’s a school project spearheaded by seventh-grade Spotlight students currently studying World War II — with a significant focus on the Holocaust. Each penny would stand for one child lost in the Holocaust. ‘The pennies will be used in an online museum,’ Horn Lake Spotlight teacher Susan Powell said. ‘We will host a (virtual) room, and this is being done through an organization (Christian Friends of Israel) in Memphis. We are going to assist them. The kids are brainstorming on what to do with the pennies.’ ” Read the whole thing.

Arnold terminates his support for ObamaCare: “You’ve heard of the bridge to nowhere. This is health care to nowhere.” And the backroom deals this time are more noxious.

Liz Cheney has good advice for Obama: “If President Obama is serious about keeping the American people safe, he should reverse his irresponsible and ill-advised decision to close the Guantanamo Bay detention facility. He should reverse his decision to usher terrorists from Guantanamo onto U.S. soil. He should reverse his decision to bring the mastermind of 9/11, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, to New York. He should reverse his decision to give KSM and other terrorists the rights of Americans and the benefit of a criminal trial in an American civilian court. He should immediately classify Abdulmutallab, the Christmas Day bomber, as an illegal enemy combatant, not a criminal defendant.” (She also has some advice for Eric Holder, including halting his investigations of CIA officials and lawyers who saved American lives.) I’d wager that very large majorities of Americans agree with her.

Haaretz reports that Rahm Emanuel said he is fed up with Israelis. (It’s mutual, pal.) And the Palestinians. And the whole Middle East peace process. The White House denies he said it.

Larry J. Sabato’s take: “A multi-seat gain for the GOP in the Senate is now the best bet. … Now we can all see clearly why President Obama is pushing so hard for his agenda in his first two years. He’s unlikely ever again to have anything approaching his current 20-seat margin in the Senate and 40-seat margin in the House.”

Alert David Brooks: Sarah Palin is headlining a Tea Party Convention.

Mickey Kaus thinks Janet Napolitano actually helps Obama. “Loyal cabinet secretaries should take the blame–and the PR hit–for their agency’s mistakes. The President stays as far away from the bad thing as possible, even when the White House is in reality intimately involved.” I dunno. I think having dopey advisers — e.g., Alberto Gonzales — just fuels the “executive incompetence” meme.

When he’s not bending the cost curve: “President Obama’s budget guru has a secret love child — with the woman he jilted before hooking up with his hot new fiance [sic], The Post has learned.”

Big Labor spent millions electing Obama, and this is the thanks it gets: “President Barack Obama signaled to House Democratic leaders Wednesday that they’ll have to drop their opposition to taxing high-end health insurance plans to pay for health coverage for millions of uninsured Americans. In a meeting at the White House, Obama expressed his preference for the insurance tax contained in the Senate’s health overhaul bill, but largely opposed by House Democrats and organized labor, Democratic aides said.” Oh yes, that’s a lot of people making less than $200,000 who are going to get taxed, despite Obama’s campaign promise.

Read Less




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