Commentary Magazine


Topic: Maryland primary

Polls Show Romney Headed for Victories in Wisconsin, Maryland

Public Policy Polling shows Mitt Romney with a healthy lead over Rick Santorum in Wisconsin and a very strong lead in Maryland, heading into the primaries tomorrow:

Mitt Romney looks to be headed for another pair of victories in Tuesday’s primaries. Maryland is likely to be a blow out with Romney at 52 percent to 27 percent for Rick Santorum, 10 percent for Newt Gingrich, and 9 percent for Ron Paul. Wisconsin should be a good deal closer. There Romney’s at 43 percent to 36 percent for Santorum, 11 percent for Paul, and 8 percent for Gingrich.

Romney’s starting to have some success with groups that have generally been key components of Santorum’s base over the last two months. For instance, he leads with Tea Party voters in both states, 43-34 in Maryland and 46-38 in Wisconsin. He’s also becoming more competitive with evangelical voters, leading 43-36 with them in Maryland and trailing only47-35 with them in Wisconsin. In the states where Santorum’s been victorious, he’s generally won evangelicals by a much wider margin than that.

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Public Policy Polling shows Mitt Romney with a healthy lead over Rick Santorum in Wisconsin and a very strong lead in Maryland, heading into the primaries tomorrow:

Mitt Romney looks to be headed for another pair of victories in Tuesday’s primaries. Maryland is likely to be a blow out with Romney at 52 percent to 27 percent for Rick Santorum, 10 percent for Newt Gingrich, and 9 percent for Ron Paul. Wisconsin should be a good deal closer. There Romney’s at 43 percent to 36 percent for Santorum, 11 percent for Paul, and 8 percent for Gingrich.

Romney’s starting to have some success with groups that have generally been key components of Santorum’s base over the last two months. For instance, he leads with Tea Party voters in both states, 43-34 in Maryland and 46-38 in Wisconsin. He’s also becoming more competitive with evangelical voters, leading 43-36 with them in Maryland and trailing only47-35 with them in Wisconsin. In the states where Santorum’s been victorious, he’s generally won evangelicals by a much wider margin than that.

The Santorum campaign is still holding out hope for an upset in Wisconsin tomorrow, but the polls out today by PPP and We Ask America make that possibility increasingly farfetched. The two states where Santorum most notably outperformed the polls and won an upset were Alabama and Mississippi, but he was still closer to the lead in those surveys. The polling in Wisconsin has been fairly consistent during the past couple of weeks, and Santorum has trailed Romney by a good seven or eight points.

The pressure for Santorum to drop out of the race is growing, in expectation for his likely loss in Wisconsin, Maryland and D.C. And short of a miracle for Santorum in Wisconsin, these calls are going to get much louder the day after tomorrow.

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