Commentary Magazine

Topic: Mike Huckabee

It Can’t Be 2012 Thune Enough

11.13.2009 - 3:35 PM

In a typically informative and original column today, my friend David Brooks takes up the 2012 cause of John Thune of South Dakota, the handsome face of small-town non-Alaskan Republicanism. Thune is not too hot, not too cold, just right. That may be, but then David offers this observation regarding the contention that the political tide has turned against the president:

Obama remains the most talented political figure of the age. After health care passes, he will pivot and pick some fights with his own party over spending. He’ll solidify his standing with independents, and if the economy recovers, he could go into his re-election with as much momentum as Ronald Reagan enjoyed in 1984.

Perhaps, but if that is so, then why does it matter whether the face of Republicanism is John Thune or Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee? Reagan won 49 states in 1984; Walter Mondale couldn’t even draw 40 percent of the vote. Perhaps Mondale ran a problematic campaign, promising tax increases and the like, but a victory like Reagan’s was so overwhelming that the world’s greatest candidate could have run against Reagan and only won a few more states.

Thune may indeed have a pleasing mien and an appropriate demeanor for 2012. But to face down a sitting president and unseat him, a party is going to need more from its candidate. It’s going to take the ability to explain why the country has gone wrong, why what’s wrong is his opponent’s doing, and what he will do to set it right. That requires passion, animation, and a profound sense of the rightness of his views and the wrongness of the views of his rivals. To judge from David’s summary of Thune’s virtues, he may be the best person to lead the GOP if it stays in the wilderness — on “first do no harm grounds” — but not to lead it to a victory that reverses the country’s ideological direction:

Republicans are still going to have to do root-and-branch renovation if they hope to provide compelling answers to issues like middle-class economic anxiety. But in the meantime, people like Thune offer Republicans a way to connect fiscal discipline with traditional small-town values, a way to tap into rising populism in a manner that is optimistic, uplifting and nice.

Optimism, uplift, and niceness are … nice. But they are minor components in a victory strategy — they are there to file off the rough edges of the party. They cannot be its leading edge.

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Apology Time, Or Not

05.17.2008 - 7:53 PM

Mike Huckabee made a remarkably stupid joke at the NRA convention about Barack Obama. To no one’s surprise, he apologized within twenty-four hours.

Senator Tom Harkin criticized John McCain for his and his family’s apparently excessive time in military service:

“I think he’s trapped in that . . .Everything is looked at from his life experiences, from always having been in the military, and I think that can be pretty dangerous. . . [I]t’s one thing to have been drafted and served, but another thing when you come from generations of military people and that’s just how you’re steeped, how you’ve learned, how you’ve grown up. . . I just want to be very clear there’s nothing wrong with a career in the military . . . But now McCain is running for a higher office. He’s running for commander in chief, and our Constitution says that should be a civilian. And in some ways, I think it would be nice if that commander in chief had some military background, but I don’t know if they need a whole lot.”

Yes, I suppose it would have been far better had George Washington and Dwight D. Eisenhower not had all that military training. So far, nothing from either Harkin or the presumptive Democratic nominee apologizing for impugning all that service to America.

The Left’s reflexive disdain for all things military has not endeared them to average Americans in the past. Obama, who let Sen. Jay Rockefeller’s jibe at McCain’s military service go without a direct rebuke, should decide if he wants to perpetuate this error. For a candidate who has generated concern about his willingness to express patriotic emotion (and who seems divorced at times from the cultural values held by millions of Americans), it might be a good idea for him to start repudiating these comments.

Oh, I forgot . . . absent an appearance at the National Press Club by the offending speaker, he doesn’t do repudiation.

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First Pins, Now Crosses

05.14.2008 - 3:41 PM

Remember all the fuss when Mike Huckabee put out a Christmas ad with a bookshelf in the background that media pundits were sure was a “cross”? There were plenty of howls. Well, Barack Obama’s latest ad, in the the form of direct mail, doesn’t leave anything to the imagination. The cross stares you right in the face. And there is plenty about his religious faith in the ad copy.

Surely People for the American Way, the ACLU, and other outspoken critics of mixing religion and politics must be on the case, right? No? Well, it’s like the flag pin: It’s for the little people. Obama’s media fans know their man is just putting on a show, you see. So it’s alright. It’s the New Politics!

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“Thank You West Virginia!”

05.13.2008 - 9:09 PM

Hillary Clinton takes this victory as an “overwhelming vote of confidence.” From the Bible she says that she knows that ”Faith can move mountains.” I am reasonably certain this is not Mike Huckabee in a salmon pantsuit. UPDATE: “You never quit and neither will I,” she says. She’s not going anywhere for awhile.

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Backlash

03.30.2008 - 2:21 AM

Why are so many Democrats and so many media outlets anxious to push Hillary Clinton down the stairs and out of the race? If she were mathematically eliminated and truly stood no chance to win, as they insist, why not patiently ride her candidacy out the way the Republicans did with Mike Huckabee?

Well, it’s clear the Democrats are not so confident that Clinton is simply going to melt away. The AP reports (h/t Instapundit):

Many undeclared superdelegates express confidence that all will be well. Democratic voters will unite in the fall, they say, and the injuries that Obama and Clinton inflict on each other this spring will heal. Privately, however, some party insiders worry that these superdelegates may be blithely marching toward a treacherous crossroad, where they will have to choose between a deeply wounded Obama and a soaring Clinton whose success was built on tearing down the party’s front-runner in terms of delegates.

So rather than face a hard choice, Democratic insiders figure it is easier to goad Clinton out of the race. This is foolhardy on two counts.

First, she isn’t going anywhere and people who think the Clintons can be bullied haven’t been paying close attention to the last dozen years or so of American politics. (If they wouldn’t leave the White House in the face of impeachment proceedings and national embarrassment, they won’t leave a mere primary race.)

Second, she is going to town on the feminist backlash angle. The “big boys” are ganging up on her, she claims. With some merit, Diane Feinstein says of the effort to push Clinton out of the race: “I think that’s really premature, and it’s ill conceived. She has a right to wage her candidacy and to fight until a time that she can’t recoup those votes.”

Worse still, this approach isn’t helpful to Barack Obama. It just perpetuates the perception that Obama is like a newborn fawn who must be sheltered and coddled to protect him from the ravages of a full blown political battle. By whining that the race is like a movie that goes on a half-hour too long, he insults voters in states he still needs to win and makes it seem as if the whole thing is too terribly hard and boring for him to bear. (Even he is now beginning to dial back on the “get out Hillary” talk – perhaps sensing that it sounds arrogant and defensive.) And Clinton just looks grittier and more resilient – exactly the qualities she says the nominee will need in the general election – when she defies the party establishment that would rather not bother with a few more months of voting.

So if the Democratic Party wants to dump Clinton they are just going to have to beat her, fair and square. There is no easy way out now.

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Romney for Veep?

03.12.2008 - 10:44 AM

A month removed from his presidential campaign, Mitt Romney is back on the airwaves. Last night, Romney told Fox News that he would be “honored” to serve as John McCain’s vice-presidential nominee-a suggestion that has to leave just about anyone who followed the Republican nomination battle utterly perplexed.

After all, by all appearances, Romney and McCain detest each other, with the vitriol increasing as the two emerged as leading candidates in the run-up to Super Tuesday. Romney expended much of his personal wealth on attack ads, seeking to paint McCain as liberal. Meanwhile, McCain accused Romney of flip-flopping on key political positions, referring to him as the “candidate of change” during the New Hampshire debate. For those who have wondered how Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton could possibly coexist on the same ticket given their own heated nomination contest, a McCain-Romney ticket should be no less of a head-scratcher.

Of course, the obvious choice for McCain’s running mate is Mike Huckabee. During the nomination contest, Huckabee emerged as the consensus conservative candidate, assuming the place that was to be filled by Fred Thompson (remember him?) and directly challenging the original argument for Romney’s candidacy. Then, as the campaigns approached Super Tuesday, Huckabee teamed with McCain against Romney: Huckabee defended McCain against Romney’s barbs, while McCain urged his supporters in West Virginia to back Huckabee–critically thwarting an early Super Tuesday victory for Romney. Most importantly, Huckabee extended his campaign despite nearly impossible odds of victory, affording McCain the opportunity to appeal to voters in key states, including Virginia and Ohio.

Or, if McCain desires to maintain the moderate flavor of his campaign, Florida Governor Charlie Crist is another strong option. Crist is viewed as a truly moderate Republican and as an environmentalist, and his endorsement of McCain was viewed as critical to McCain’s defeat of Romney in the January 29th primary. Moreover, his nomination would boost the Republicans’ odds of maintaining Florida’s red-state status, given Crist’s incredible 71% approval rating.

Ultimately, the Democrats’ decision regarding whether they will re-run primary elections in Florida and Michigan should determine whether McCain chooses Crist or Huckabee. Indeed, if the DNC fails to seat Floridian delegates at the convention, McCain would hardly need Crist to win Florida, and his attention might therefore turn to solidifying the conservative base via Huckabee. Meanwhile, previous bad blood would require McCain and Romney to defend their partnership, which would become a total distraction.

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Counting Down

02.24.2008 - 3:35 PM

McCain snagged 18 delegates in victories on Saturday in American Samoa and the Northern Marianas. With a win in Puerto Rico on Sunday he gained 20 more delegates to reach 996. The race very well could end on March 4 when 265 delegates are at stake. Mike Huckabee, after a Saturday Night Live performance that revealed he knows the jig is up, will presumably stick to his word and formally leave the race once McCain’s delegate count hits 1191. His continued presence has proven only the most minor annoyance to McCain and gave McCain the pretext to get on the air after primary wins over the last few weeks. Huckabee’s future job prospects remain bright. If nothing else, he represents a new style of leadership for Christian conservatives.

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McCain’s Verbal Missile Crisis

02.22.2008 - 2:33 PM

John McCain was not at his most prudent when he recently said of Fidel Castro: “I hope he has the opportunity to meet Karl Marx very soon.” The funny line is, in its way, a welcome change from the mild reverence that’s attended the dictator’s retirement. But in wishing Fidel Castro a speedy trip to hell, McCain is begging critics to accuse him of being unreasonable, hot-headed, and generally too ill-tempered to serve as president.

With Fidel gone, it is at least conceivable that the next U.S. president will be called upon to step up U.S.-Cuban diplomacy. It’s not hard to imagine the chill that McCain’s words might cast on a face-to-face-meeting between himself and Fidel’s brother and successor Raul. To make matters colder still, McCain also said, “Apparently [Fidel] is trying to groom his brother Raul. Raul is worse in many respects than Fidel was.”

McCain’s lucky in a few respects here. The statements are not that easy for American politicians to criticize. Neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton need to go on record as defending Fidel or Raul Castro. This could keep their lips buttoned. And Mike Huckabee, whose campaign just may be far enough out there to hint at some kind of defense of Raul, has fallen off the radar. No matter what, this is a reminder that McCain’s anti-talent for sound-bites remains his biggest liability.

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Why Is McCain Pleased?

02.22.2008 - 7:10 AM
“In all the uproar, no one has challenged what we actually reported.” That howler was part of a statement issued yestersday by New York Times Executive Editor Bill Keller. It would be true, if you did not include John McCain, his lawyer, his aides, his surrogates, the woman in question, and a large percentage of the media. The Page neatly summarized where things stood less than 24 hours after the story broke: “Paper of Record has worse day in the media than the subject of its Thursday scoop.” As a political matter, it turned some of his harshest critics into his defenders, and given Mike Huckabee’s wise move to defend McCain, the episode has hastened his reconcilliation with the Republican base.

Aside from his Chuchillian brush with the Times (“There is no greater exhilaration than being shot at without result”), McCain must have been very happy last night. The Democratic debate suggested a number of fruitful avenues for him to explore in the general election. On many points which Hillary Clinton did not or could not engage Barack Obama, McCain can and will. On earmarks, Obama will be hard pressed to grab the mantle of fiscal cheapstake from McCain. On Iraq, Obama’s curious concession that the reduced violence is a mere “tactical” victory will, of course, be met with query as to why we would retreat after both military and some political success. On Cuba, the Florida voters in particular will be interested in this response as to whether Obama would meet with Raul Castro:

I would meet without preconditions, although Senator Clinton is right that there has to be preparation. It is very important for us to make sure that there was an agenda and on that agenda was human rights, releasing of political prisoners, opening up the press. And that preparation might take some time. . . And then I think it is important for us to have the direct contact not just in Cuba, but I think this principle applies generally. I’m — I recall what John F. Kennedy once said, that we should never negotiate out of fear, but we should never fear to negotiate. And this moment, this opportunity when Fidel Castro has finally stepped down I think is one that we should try to take advantage of.

And I suspect that McCain will do even better than Clinton on the “describe the moment that tested you the most, that moment of crisis” question.

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McCain Is Off And Running

02.20.2008 - 3:21 PM

With only the slighest acknowledgment that Hillary Clinton is still running, John McCain is beginning his general election race against Barack Obama. He was in fighting form today, using Obama’s shifting position on public campaign financing to suggest Obama is practicing Washington “doublespeak” and not keeping his committments. He again labeled Obama as naive on foreign policy. In the category of politics making strange bedfellows, he will be getting some help from Clinton, who seems determined to help point out Obama’s weaknesses, especially his lack of fitness to be commander-in-chief. (Although Clinton’s effort is likely to fail, that does not indicate that the commander-in-chief theme won’t be successful in a general election context when marshalled by someone who actually does have foreign policy experience.)

After all the talk that Mike Huckabee was an ongoing irritant to McCain while the “spirited” Democratic race would keep interest high, the reverse may end up being true. The Democratic race is now looking a little less productive for the eventual nominee, while Huckabee’s presence at least gets McCain cable news coverage of his primary victory speech.

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Running Out of Options

02.20.2008 - 10:44 AM

The magnitude of Hillary Clinton’s loss is rather eye-popping: she lost by 17 percent last night, just one point less than Mike Huckabee’s margin of defeat. The latest delegate total shows her trailing 1239 to 1301. What to do? Her options are limited because the main lines of attack (e.g. Obama has no real experience, he is too far left), which may be viable avenues for John McCain, either don’t work in a Democratic primary or don’t create enough of a contrast between the two. (It took Barack Obama to convince the media that Hillary Clinton is painfully light on experience herself.) She could go negative and incur the wrath of the media, or she could hope for an awful gaffe. Tomorrow’s debate and the one next Tuesday may be her final chances to climb back into the race.

While Obama may not reach 2025 delegates by June, he will, at this rate, establish himself as the undisputed “winner” and thereby deprive Clinton of any argument to lure away the superdelegates. We will then have our general election match up: the two greatest come from behind nominees, perhaps ever.

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No More Mr. Nice Guy

02.15.2008 - 8:24 AM
Well, Mike Huckabee has not had a good couple of days. First, came the Cayman Islands speech making jaunt. Then there was the nasty rejoinder to Mitt Romney’s endorsement (and to Romney himself) followed by the defensive press release yesterday declaring: “I know all about the rumors swirling around. [Ed: What rumors?] That’s why I just went on national news show this afternoon, to knock those rumors down. I am still in this race. As I have said all along, I am in this race until someone gets to 1,191 delegates. That has not happened yet, and so I will keep campaigning for the Republican nomination. Period. That’s my ironclad commitment to my supporters.” Next came the fundraising letter pleading for more money to continue the fight. (“Before we get to a brokered convention however we will need to win Texas and seize the momentum. For this to happen however, we must have your immediate financial support. We are laying it all on the field in Texas and we need you to join us.”)
So far he is not impressing pundits or making more conservative friends. But he apparently is trying to make the most of his financial opportunities.
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The Romney Endorsement

02.14.2008 - 5:07 PM

A short time ago Mitt Romney endorsed John McCain, asking his delegates to support his former rival. Although it is unclear whether the delegates can legally be transferred to McCain (the rules vary by state), the combined total of Romney’s delegates (286) and McCain’s (843) would put him close to the 1191 needed for the nomination. Romney spoke in especially gracious terms, making clear his abiding belief that McCain is the best-qualified person to serve as commander in chief. McCain took the opportunity to note that although they differed on issues, they shared a common conservative philosophy and that McCain would draw sharp distinctions between himself and his Democratic opponent. It was the picture of party unity McCain was seeking. (Romney seemed genuinely at peace with his new role as conservative surrogate.)

On one level, Romney is making good on his pledge to unite the GOP and prevent the Democrats from taking the White House in perilous times. However, he is also amplifying the contrast between himself (high-minded GOP loyalist) with the man who may be his competition in 2012 or 2016, Mike Huckabee. Huckabee seems bent on pursuing his quixotic campaign, perhaps to build a political base or perhaps to enhance his speaking fees. And as if the contrast were not stark enough, Huckabee gives a bitter interview following the Romney endorsement.

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Consensus Wherever You Look

02.13.2008 - 10:56 PM

I think we can all agree that leaving the campaign trail to give a paid speech in the Cayman Islands to an “unnamed organization” (h/t The Page) does not exactly increase Mike Huckabee’s stature. (Sounds a bit like a John Grisham novel, in fact.)

The pundits are unanimous: Hillary Clinton is in free fall. (Indeed, she is so desperate to get Barack Obama to debate and possibly slip up that she has shelved her indignation over the comment by MSNBC’s David Shuster about her daughter.) Things are so bad the RNC focuses its attacks now on her opponent. (Ah, remember the good old days when Rudy mocked her at every turn?) Perhaps it is a form of political Stockholm Syndrome, but it seems almost unimaginable that she could lose, or at least lose without a bitter, legal fight over seating Michigan and Florida delegates. In the end, however, the delegate math will prevail.

John McCain is making progress rallying the GOP troops and pundits, in large part because the success of the surge and his role in championing it trumps most other issues. Considering that CPAC was just one week ago, it is hard to deny that he has made considerable progress unifying the party, even though “Republicans divided” remains a favorite media storyline.

Finally, even Barack Obama agrees that less chanting and more details would be a good idea.

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Why So Nice?

02.13.2008 - 3:34 PM

John McCain in the blogger call today and in a press conference earlier in the week went to great pains to avoid saying Mike Huckabee should get out of the race. He repeatedly said that he “respected” Huckabee. (Meanwhile, McCain’s campaign manager sends around a fundraising e-mail pointing out that McCain only needs 35% of the remaining delegates while Huckabee needs 123%).

This seems to be the right tactic for McCain two reasons. Much of what seems to motivate Huckabee is a chip on the shoulder, a resentment toward the GOP establishment. His constant complaint in debates that he was not getting enough questions and his obvious delight in running against “Wall Street” suggests not just a political mindset, but a tempermental outlook. (He takes great delight in describing his modest beginnings and his ability to best those more wealthy and powerful than he.) Telling him to get lost won’t help matters, but allowing him gracefully to reach the conclusion in his own time might help hasten his departure.

In addition, McCain is trying out a new persona–the gracious frontrunner and healer of the party. Critics consider him too combative with his allies and inclined to hold grudges. He intends to prove them wrong. By offering to listen to former conservative opponents and by refusing to kick sand in the eyes of a faltering rival, he furthers that effort.

All in all, it shows a measure of restraint and political maturity that may surprise his critics.

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Garbage In, Garbage Out

02.13.2008 - 6:26 AM

Much of the TV punditry last night was based on exit polling from Virginia showing that it was a one-point race. Those exit polls (as were the ones in California, Arizona, Delaware and a number of other states this primary season) were wrong, really wrong. John McCain in fact won by 11 points and reached the 50% threshold. However, not only did TV commentators continue to refer to the race as “close” but they used those very same numbers as proof positive that McCain has an ongoing problem with evangelicals and conservatives. Perhaps he does, but faulty polls are not the starting part to make the case.

In fact, when you look at actual returns, McCain did remarkably well in key areas throughout the state — Norfolk and Newport News (military communities), northern suburbia (Loudon, Fairfax) and, as Karl Rove pointed out, the 7th Congressional District (Eric Cantor) in the middle of the state, which will be critical in the general election. All in all it was an impressive showing. (Beyond that, the conservative and evangelical “problem” seems illusory since Barack Obama, not Mike Huckabee, will be on the ballot in all likelihood and increasingly high percentages of all Republicans indicate they are satisfied with McCain as the nominee.)

One thing that the TV pundits got right: Huckabee has essentially been eliminated. While the McCain camp is apparently not too pleased by his continued presence in the race, so long as McCain racks up healthy wins, ignores the exit polls (and the wrongheaded commentary which flows from it) and begins, as he did last night, to formulate a general-election message, there seems to be little harm done in waiting several more weeks for Huckabee formally to leave the race.

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Huck-a-bore

02.12.2008 - 12:41 PM

Yes, Mike Huckabee is literally running out of gas. What is worse, the amusing and puckish Huckabee is being replaced by a surly and sniping character whose new signature attack appears to be that John McCain is not sufficiently pro-life. Based on this last week, I think Huckabee is losing badly to Mitt Romney in the “losing but endearing himself to many in the party” race. McCain, however, may be glad to have him still in the race.

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Huckabee: Less Is More

02.11.2008 - 12:18 PM

We can speculate as to why Mike Huckabee is remaining in the race. (He needs over 80% of the remaining delegates to win so the reason is not “to win.”) He might want to increase what bargaining power he thinks he has regarding John McCain’s VP slot or he may think he is laying the groundwork for 2012. However, there is a good argument that the longer he stays in the worse impression he makes and the more damage he does to his future political aspirations.

The low down on the tempest in a teapot in Washington is here. (More votes were counted and McCain remains in the lead, although it appears not to be binding or impact the state convention.) Huckabee’s “woe is me/the big guys are out to get me” tactic is not likely to make McCain or anyone else in the GOP feel kindly toward him.

He is also stepping up his rhetoric against McCain at a time when many conservatives are largely making peace with their almost-nominee. (Ironically, many in the conservative base who liked Huckabee and his populist rhetoric and fuzzy foreign policy notions even less than McCain may come to appreciate McCain’s many assets, if only in comparison to Huckabee.)

In the short run, all of this may help the GOP frontrunner. Currently, Huckabee poses no threat to McCain’s nomination. McCain is likely to cruise to victories tomorrow and in Wisconsin, leaving Huckabee close to mathematical elimination. As Huckabee turns from amusing sparring partner to annoying crank, McCain can focus his attention to more viable running mates who may help him both with conservatives and with the general electorate. It was clear that Huckabee loathed Mitt Romney, but for his own sake, he might have been better off to have followed the lead of his rival and left the stage at the right time. For McCain, Huckabee’s ongoing presence may strangely help him make the case to skeptics on the right that he is not so bad after all.

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And You Think The GOP Has Problems

02.10.2008 - 10:17 AM

Yes, John McCain has a pesky Mike Huckabee reminding him that his red-state appeal could use some improvement. Yes, there is some segment of the conservative base that will dog him to move right just when he should be clinging to the center in the general election. However, his — and in turn the GOP’s issues — pale in comparison right now to the Democrats’.

We know the Democratic race is knotted and may come down to a superdelegate buy-a-thon, arm-twist-a-thon to determine the nomination, an awful prospect for the party which has spent decades trying to escape the smoke-filled room brand of politics (and not just through smoking bans). There is a bigger problem, actually two problems: Michigan and Florida.

Michigan had 156 delegates and Florida had 185 delegates before the DNC stripped both states of their delegates for breaking DNC rules and jumping into the pre-February 5 time period. In a race this close these delegates could decide the winner. Would the Democrats really pick a nominee without counting votes from two populous states that will be critical in November?

Several ideas are circulating to deal with this increasingly critical problem. Hillary Clinton, of course, wants to seat the delegates based on the votes already cast, arguing 1.8 million Florida and 600,000 Michigan votes should not be thrown out. Barack Obama contends that unlike his opponent (silly him) he abided by the DNC rules and did not compete (or even list his name on the Michigan ballot), and the recorded votes are therefore meaningless. Other ideas include a convention or caucus “do over” in the spring or some combination of a “do over” and retention of the the original results.

For all their reform-minded zeal, the Democrats may have a good old fashioned rules fight over sitting the disputed delegates and a smoke-filled room or two might determine their nominee. Political junkies might think this would be grand fun, but for both Democratic candidates and the DNC this may be their worst nightmare. The bitter feelings and lawsuits resulting from such a titanic struggle could paralyze the party that many had predicted would sail into the White House. McCain and the GOP might finally have caught a break.

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Saturday Votes

02.09.2008 - 10:11 PM
In voting today, Mike Huckabee won big with nearly 60% of the vote in the Kansas caucus. Huckabee barnstormed yesterday; John McCain did not campaign there. In early returns, McCain also is trailing Huckabee in Louisiana and, remarkably, in Washington as well, where it appears that very few votes are being cast. (There was an issue in which thosuands of ballots were invalidated due to voters’ failure to sign the ballot “oath” identifying themselves as either Democrat or Republican.) 
                                                                                                                              In the CPAC the straw poll, 24% of which occurred before Mitt Romney dropped out, McCain came in a point behind Romney (34-35%) while Mike Huckabee took 12%.(Once Romney dropped out McCain led in the straw poll voting 37%-32%.) McCain is likely pleased that  the result wasn’t far worse from a group in which 57% believe we should withdraw from the U.N. and 80% back a policy which says we should follow existing laws even if it means deporting illegal aliens. Looking ahead to Tuesday, McCain has 30+ point leads in Maryland and Virginia. It seems that, despite a poor Saturday showing, he is on track to reach his magic delegate number of 1191.

 

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Barack Obama won big in Nebraska, Washington and Louisiana. In both Red and Blue states he is racking up impressive wins. Once again, the saving grace for Hillary Clinton is the proportional voting system. Nevertheless, the ground may be shifting and Obama may lead in the delegate count after Tuesday. (He leads in Virginia and Maryland by 20 points.) It could be that the Democratic race has reached its tipping point.

UPDATE: Huckabee edged out McCain 43% to 42% in Louisiana. (Since neither candidate got 50% of the vote, no one receives the delegates that were at stake.) In Washington with 83% of the vote counted, McCain holds a narrow lead. McCain will no doubt hope to get back on track with Tuesday’s primaries.

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