Commentary Magazine


Topic: Poll

Blue State Michigan Shifting to Romney?

Late last month, Public Policy Polling found President Obama with a strong 53-39 advantage against Mitt Romney in Michigan, which has been considered a fairly safe state for Democrats this election. But a new poll released today by EPIC-MRA shows the two candidates in a dead-heat, the Detroit Free Press reports (via HotAir):

The poll, released this morning to the Free Press and four TV stations, shows Romney leading Obama 46%-45%, a reversal from the last EPIC poll in April which showed Obama ahead 47%-43%.

Obama’s personal and job approval numbers also have slipped, with 46% of Michiganders saying they have a favorable opinion of the president, and 41% approving of the job he’s doing.

What changed?

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Late last month, Public Policy Polling found President Obama with a strong 53-39 advantage against Mitt Romney in Michigan, which has been considered a fairly safe state for Democrats this election. But a new poll released today by EPIC-MRA shows the two candidates in a dead-heat, the Detroit Free Press reports (via HotAir):

The poll, released this morning to the Free Press and four TV stations, shows Romney leading Obama 46%-45%, a reversal from the last EPIC poll in April which showed Obama ahead 47%-43%.

Obama’s personal and job approval numbers also have slipped, with 46% of Michiganders saying they have a favorable opinion of the president, and 41% approving of the job he’s doing.

What changed?

The Free Press suggests that a flood of pro-Romney super PAC ads may be a culprit, but it’s likely the latest jobs numbers and poor economic news have also had an influence. Another 34 percent of respondents said that Obama’s position on gay marriage made them less likely to vote for him, but some of these may have been people who were not planning to vote for him in the first place.

Also note that the EPIC-MRA poll was conducted among likely voters, while the PPP poll was with registered voters, which may account for some of the discrepancy between the two. Even if that’s the case, there is still a large gulf, and it’s hard to know whether the EPIC-MRA numbers are the sign of a trend or an outlier until additional polls are released.

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Gray Lady Poll: Conservative Views Prevail

Even with a sampling imbalance in favor Democrats (36 percent, to only 27 percent Republicans, as opposed to the recent Gallup survey showing a 6-point spread) and the polling of all adults (not even registered voters), the New York Times poll has some remarkably unpleasant news for liberals. Obama’s approval has slid 3 points in a month, to 50 percent, and their signature legislative item, health care, is seen by only 12 percent of the respondents as the most important issue (23 percent say the economy, 24 percent say jobs). Forty-two percent like the president’s handling of health care, while 50 percent disapprove. Thirty-four percent think health-care reform will hurt them personally, while 16 percent think it will help. Forty-two percent say it will make no difference.

On Afghanistan, the Gray Lady’s readers really may be shocked to discover that by a 49 to 39 percent margin, Americans think we’re doing the right thing fighting there; and by a 51 to 43 percent margin, they approve of the deployment of troops, even though by a 47 to 42 percent margin they think the president hasn’t explained his plan clearly enough. The kicker: by a margin of 55 to 41 percent, Americans disapprove of the “withdrawal date.” To pay for the war, 53 percent favor spending cuts, while only 10 percent favor tax hikes. Hmm. Sounds like the neocon conspiracy now extends to a majority of the country.

All in all, it’s quite an impressive showing — for the widespread acceptance of conservative views. But it sure must come as a shock to the New York Times‘s readers, who, if they only read the Times, would be lead to believe that Afghanistan is a disaster and health care is a must-have accomplishment for the Democratic party.

Even with a sampling imbalance in favor Democrats (36 percent, to only 27 percent Republicans, as opposed to the recent Gallup survey showing a 6-point spread) and the polling of all adults (not even registered voters), the New York Times poll has some remarkably unpleasant news for liberals. Obama’s approval has slid 3 points in a month, to 50 percent, and their signature legislative item, health care, is seen by only 12 percent of the respondents as the most important issue (23 percent say the economy, 24 percent say jobs). Forty-two percent like the president’s handling of health care, while 50 percent disapprove. Thirty-four percent think health-care reform will hurt them personally, while 16 percent think it will help. Forty-two percent say it will make no difference.

On Afghanistan, the Gray Lady’s readers really may be shocked to discover that by a 49 to 39 percent margin, Americans think we’re doing the right thing fighting there; and by a 51 to 43 percent margin, they approve of the deployment of troops, even though by a 47 to 42 percent margin they think the president hasn’t explained his plan clearly enough. The kicker: by a margin of 55 to 41 percent, Americans disapprove of the “withdrawal date.” To pay for the war, 53 percent favor spending cuts, while only 10 percent favor tax hikes. Hmm. Sounds like the neocon conspiracy now extends to a majority of the country.

All in all, it’s quite an impressive showing — for the widespread acceptance of conservative views. But it sure must come as a shock to the New York Times‘s readers, who, if they only read the Times, would be lead to believe that Afghanistan is a disaster and health care is a must-have accomplishment for the Democratic party.

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