Commentary Magazine


Topic: Ron Brownstein

From King Canute to a Cork in the Ocean

White House political adviser David Axelrod granted an interview to Ron Brownstein of National Journal that qualifies as either hyper-spin or an almost clinical state of denial. For example, Axelrod tells Brownstein, “It’s almost impossible to win a referendum on yourself. And the Republicans would like this to be a referendum. It’s not going to be a referendum.”

Yes it will. When a political party controls the presidency and, by wide margins, the House and the Senate, the midterm election will be a referendum on the stewardship of that party. There’s no way to get around that. What’s particularly revealing is that Axelrod and his colleagues, rather than welcoming a referendum on their year in office, are terribly afraid of it. They know that if the dominant issues of the 2010 midterm election are how well Democrats have governed, they will absorb tremendous damage.

Axelrod makes this point in a slightly different way when he says:

If the question is what we’ve been able to achieve, which I think is substantial, versus the ideal of what people hope for or hoped for, that’s a harder race for us. If the choice is between the things we’ve achieved and we’re fighting for and what the other side would deliver, I think that’s very motivational to people.

In other words, if people measure us against perfection, we will fall short. But people won’t be measuring Obama and Democrats against perfection; they will be measuring him/them against the standards Obama set up — for example, insisting that unemployment would not exceed 8 percent in 2009 (it is now 10 percent); that the stimulus package would “create or save” 3.5 million jobs over the course of two years (2.8 million jobs have been lost since it was signed into law); that the deficit and debt would go down on his watch (Obama’s budget will double the debt in five years and triple it in 10 years); and so forth. Read More

Doomed if They Do, Doomed if They Don’t?

The Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein pours through the data and concludes “a difficult 2010 election for Democrats could turn catastrophic.” My own view is that if Democrats pass health-care legislation — and the most recent CNN poll shows that only 36 percent favor the Senate bill, while 61 percent oppose it (79 percent said the bill would increase the deficit, and 85 percent said the bill would increase their taxes) — it will make that outcome more, not less, likely.

ObamaCare is one of the most unpopular pieces of legislation we have seen in quite a long time; it borders on being radioactive. It also happens to be what Democrats, including Obama, are pinning their political hopes to. It is an amazing predicament Democrats find themselves in: they will suffer if they don’t pass health-care legislation; and they may well suffer more if they do.

The heady days of early 2009 have given way to deep concern as Democrats look to 2010. As some of us warned when the president took office and Obama was viewed as a demigod by many in the political class, governing is harder than campaigning. But we didn’t imagine it would be quite this hard quite this soon.