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Today, Fidel Castro announced that he will retire from his leadership posts.  “I will neither aspire to nor accept, I repeat, I will neither aspire to nor accept the positions of President of the State Council and Commander in Chief,” he wrote in a letter posted on the website of Granma, the Cuban Communist Party’s official paper.  “My only wish is to fight as a soldier in the battle of ideas.” 

President Bush immediately reacted to the surprise announcement by stating that Castro’s departure paves the way for democratic governance.  “The international community should work with the Cuban people to begin to build institutions that are necessary for democracy.  And eventually, this transition ought to lead to free and fair elections,” he said while traveling in Africa.  Yet before the people of Cuba “realize the blessings of liberty,” to borrow Bush’s words, they will have to put up with another Castro.  This Sunday, the country’s National Assembly is expected to select  Fidel’s younger brother, Raul, to succeed him.   

The change of supremos in communist states is always a time of hope.  Raul, now Cuba’s defense minister, has been handling day-to-day affairs since July 2006 at the time of his brother’s intestinal surgery.  The younger Castro is thought to be the more pragmatic of the two.  As a result, many, in addition to President Bush, predict positive change in Havana. 

So far, Raul looks like a reformer.  He has, for example, asked his fellow Cubans to voice their concerns in December 2006.  Since then, officials have been conducting forums around the country to solicit public opinion.  And he appears to be ready to implement important economic changes, perhaps as early as next month.  Yet before we endorse his efforts, we have to remember that communist governments have only limited potential for real progress.  “It’s not a problem of one person,” said a young Cuban who did not want to be identified.  “It’s a whole system, and the people who run it want to stay where they are."  As this individual noted about his country’s leaders, “They know that any change will bring the whole edifice down.”

That’s more or less what happened in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union.  And that’s the central dilemma for socialists lucky enough to still govern: they realize they have to open their economies but that economic change unleashes social trends that are difficult to control.  In the post-Soviet era, the five remaining communist states have chosen different paths with a wide variety of results, yet none of them has opted for fundamental political transformation.  China, the star economic reformer among the lot, now has a political system that is less free than it was in 1998—and in many ways less free than 1988.  North Korea, the only other communist state to undergo a leadership transition from one family member to another, is also failing to show political progress. 

As we craft policies for dealing with tomorrow’s Cuba, it’s useful to look at the past.  In the aftermath of the Soviet collapse, Fidel successfully used economic ties with the West to strengthen the regime and forestall structural reform.  Therefore, it would not be surprising if Raul will try to do the same.  The challenge for the Bush administration in its remaining days is to ensure that the ties we establish with the government in Havana benefit Cubans—and not repressive and corrupt officials.  Raul, after all, is a Castro and a communist and should be considered guilty until proven innocent.     

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