What’s going on in the Electoral College, where the real election is won or lost? After trailing badly for months, suddenly John McCain has pulled into a tie, largely on the strength of his recent polling in swing states. That’s a remarkable comeback. He has been down as much as ninety votes in the last few months.
Now all caveats apply to these polls as well: some have small sample groups, it is early, etc. But is important to remember that the campaigns look at these public as well as internal polls and will adjust spending and time allocated to each state. If you don’t see Barack Obama in North Carolina, you can take that off his “Red states we’ll poach” list. If John McCain plants himself in New Hampshire for a couple of days you know he thinks that is doable. What we don’t know is whether all of this, like the national polling, is temporary or the beginning of a significant shift. Time will tell.