Max, I have expressed my own doubts about the causal connection between the president’s speech and the voting in Lebanon. Aside from the proof problem (I don’t suppose there are any “exit polls” on this), it strikes me as a dangerous game the president’s supporters are playing.
Are the local UK and European elections also a reflection on Obama? Is he placing his political standing on the outcome of the Iranian election? (Better question: with Obama in the White House do Israelis feel more secure with Bibi?) If we play that game, George W. Bush should have taken credit for the election of pro-American and more conservative governments in France and Germany during his tenure. But he wouldn’t have had the nerve.
That sort of hubris — taking credit for the decisions of independent democracies and viewing all events through one’s own egocentric prism — is something only a “sort of God” would attempt.