During the past year, opinion polls have consistently shown widespread public disapproval of President Obama’s health care reform law. The Hill has a new survey out reaffirming this, as the Supreme Court prepares to hear arguments on the constitutionality of the law later today.
The most interesting takeaway from the poll is that the disapproval for ObamaCare is spread across most voting demographics, including two key groups that Democrats have argued benefit most from the law: young people and women. From The Hill:
By a 52-percent-to-39-percent margin women are more opposed to it than men, who oppose it 48 percent to 45 percent, a difference that matches the poll’s 3-point margin of error. …
While even the youngest voters oppose the law (47 percent to 42 percent among those aged 18-39), opposition grows to 53 percent among voters aged 65 and older.
While President Obama didn’t personally commemorate the two-year anniversary of his health care law last week, his campaign has been emphasizing the supposedly positive impact the law will have on women and young Americans. Obviously, the numbers in The Hill poll complicate that message. The fact that women are more likely to oppose the law than men is particularly interesting, and gives the GOP an opening to try to frame this as a women’s issue.
But the poll also bolsters one of the main arguments we may hear from Democrats if the Supreme Court does end up overturning the law or portions of it. While voters want to see the law repealed, they also believe the justices’ eventual decisions may be politically motivated:
Although voters want the Court to strike the law, they don’t necessarily trust the justices’ motivations. Fifty-six percent of likely voters believe the justices are swayed by their own political beliefs, while just 27 percent believe they “make impartial decisions based on their reading of the Constitution.”
Skepticism about the justices relying on their political beliefs ran consistently among age, racial and philosophical categories, with a majority of whites (54 percent), blacks (59 percent), Republicans (56 percent), Democrats (59 percent), conservatives (54 percent), centrists (56 percent) and liberals (59 percent) expressing the same viewpoint.
When people decry “judicial activism,” often they’re really using it as a euphemism for a decision they don’t like or don’t agree with. If the law is struck down, the health care issue will likely become an election-year motivator for Democratic voters, and the blame will no doubt be pinned on conservative activist judges.