Commentary Magazine


The Growth Figures

New gross domestic product figures for the first quarter of 2014 were released this morning by the Commerce Department and they are dismal, a mere 0.1 percent growth. This was way below what economists had been expecting (the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists had predicted a less-than-stellar 1.1 percent) and even more below the pace of the last half of 2013, which was 3.4 percent.

To be sure, it was a brutal winter in much of the country this year, but these figures are seasonally adjusted, to reflect normal winter slowdown in such industries as construction. Had it not been for considerably above normal spending on energy to heat homes, which caused consumer spending to rise by 3 percent (it rose 3.3 percent in the last quarter of 2013), the figures would have been worse.

Business investment in such things as equipment and buildings fell 2.1 percent from the last quarter. Exports fell a startling 7.6 percent, the largest drop since the recession officially ended in June 2009 and reflecting lackluster economic growth abroad. Imports fell much less, only 1.4 percent.

To be sure, economists expect GDP growth to pick up next quarter, in part because the spending that was delayed this winter by the awful weather will be made up this spring and summer. But this continues a worrying pattern of not only lackluster growth overall, but very erratic growth, as can be seen in this chart from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is not at all typical of a recovery from a deep recession, which usually shows strong and steady growth.

Democrats had better pray that this is a blip in the statistics. Two more quarters like this and November will be an ugly political month for them.

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