Today’s gay marriage decisions handed down by the United States Supreme Court were decided on the law as interpreted by the majority. But there’s little question that the ruling striking down the Defense of Marriage Act is rooted in a fundamental shift in American culture that took place in the last generation. The sweeping language used by Justice Anthony Kennedy in his DOMA opinion spoke of the need to extend equal protection to gay spouses in states that permitted such marriages. In doing so, he not only struck down the federal act that did not recognize them but characterized it in such a way as to consign it to the dustbin of history along with other restrictions, whether about race or religion, that are now regarded as indefensible.

Gays and their supporters are rightly celebrating this as a historic turning point in American history. But it must be understood that this ruling would have been unthinkable 20 years ago when even a liberal President Bill Clinton eagerly signed DOMA after Congress had passed it. How did this sea change come about? Liberals may consider it a natural evolution of thought to more progressive opinion (since as we saw with President Obama and gay marriage, reversals on such issues that end with an endorsement of the more liberal position are regarded as evolution rather than a flip-flop). But it could never have happened outside of the context of American popular culture that has normalized gays and gay marriage in films and TV to the point that they are now regarded as unexceptionable. As my colleague John Podhoretz noted on Twitter this morning after the ruling, the credit for the decision on DOMA belongs as much to the producers of the Will and Grace television show as it does to any legal scholar.

While Justice Kennedy derided the willingness of Congress to step into what most Americans consider a point about morality and to, in effect, discriminate against gay couples, the question of whether such discrimination is legal or not has always tended to be based on popular opinion as much as law. This is a key point because as Justice Antonin Scalia pointed out in his dissent in the 5-4 vote on DOMA, Congress has always considered itself to have the right to legislate on morality. But that is only true so long as there is a consensus about what is moral and what is not. In the 1990s, the long held consensus that the traditional definition of marriage is the only one the government should recognize still held. If that is no longer true, and it is obvious that this is the case, then it is inevitable that the law will follow the culture.

For example, even today as much of America celebrates the newly enshrined concept of marriage equality, few seem to have any problem prohibiting two or three women from marrying the same man and in treating such “Big Love” marriages as being beyond the pale of the law’s protection. Under the logic of the DOMA decision, that ought not to be true. But even to ask the advocates of gay marriage if their victory should extend to polygamous spouses would probably be viewed as a provocation rather than a reasonable question. Perhaps that will no longer be true in a generation, but unless the entertainment industry is prepared to start including more “plural marriage” characters in its situation comedies, I wouldn’t bet on it.

The defenders of traditional marriage can console themselves that the majority in the DOMA case did not overreach in the manner of the authors of the Roe v. Wade decision and have not attempted to mandate gay marriage throughout the country. They have wisely left the decision about whether to legalize such unions to the states. Doing so reaffirms the basic concepts of federalism and allows those states that refuse to accept gay marriage to go on doing so. That may change if Hillary Clinton is elected president in 2016 and is able to replace some of the court’s conservatives with liberals. At that point the court may strike down all state laws or constitutional amendments that do not conform to this standard, which is something they refused to do in the California Proposition 8 case today where they merely said the plaintiffs had no standing to defend the statute.

But the point here is that gay marriage advocates won the legal war because they first won the culture war. Those conservatives who hope to avoid the same outcome on other issues would do well to remember that. 

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