The Presidential Debate Reality Show

Tomorrow night’s presidential debate and the one that follows the next week may be the only opportunities for either President Obama or Mitt Romney to score a victory at their opponent’s expense before Election Day. So it’s no surprise that both are viewing it as having the potential to help determine the outcome of the contest. It remains to be seen whether the president’s attempt to correct his lackluster performance in the first debate will lead him to overcompensate by being too aggressive. Another point to watch will be whether Romney will be as on top of his game in a town hall setting where he will have to interact with voters — never his strong suit — as he was in the first debate. But almost as important as these questions will be how many Americans will actually watch it.

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The Presidential Debate Reality Show

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Relearning the Iran Crisis’ Lessons

Thirty-seven years ago today, Iranian students answering to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. While the Iranian Embassy in Washington is vacant and protected, the U.S. Embassy remains occupied and is used both as a headquarters for the Qods Force and as a psychological operations training center for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Never has an Iranian official—hardliner or so-called reformer—apologized for the hostage taking. Quite the contrary, they continue to justify the attack on sovereign U.S. territory and established diplomatic norms.

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The ObamaCare Lies Will Never End

Coming into the homestretch, Barack Obama has dedicated himself to the campaign trail in a mission to drum up persistently lagging enthusiasm for the lackluster Hillary Clinton. If, however, the president is ever held to account for his rhetoric on the stump, Democrats may regret deploying the outgoing commander-in-chief. When it comes to the Affordable Care Act, Obama and his liberal courtiers are creating problems for themselves by being less than honest about the law’s ongoing meltdown.

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Shut Up About Impeachment

After a week in which the fortunes of their presidential candidate markedly improved, you’d think some on the right would be thinking more positive thoughts. But when it comes to the Clintons, many Republicans just can’t get the word “impeachment” out of their mind.

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Five Days, Eight Thoughts

Some thoughts:

  1. Hillary Clinton is leading. Every scrap of data we have says if the election were held today, Hillary Clinton would win. Of all the poll aggregators, RealClearPolitics is the most favorable to Trump, and its “no toss-ups” electoral map has the race at 298-240 for Clinton (and that includes 15 votes for Trump in North Carolina, where the early voting data suggest Clinton is in good shape). The spread between her and Donald Trump has narrowed in the last 11 days, but he hasn’t overtaken her in state or national polling. Remember that in 2012, the optimism in the Romney camp was that Romney led nationally by a bit. Trump is neither leading nationally in the poll averages nor in state polling sufficient to suggest he will prevail on Tuesday.
  2. Donald Trump is only doing a little better than he was. Trump’s numbers, in battleground states and nationally, is fixed in the lower 40s. This is better than the days a few weeks ago when he was below 40, to be sure, a number that suggested a defeat in the McGovern range. But even John McCain ended up with 46 percent of the vote. Right now Trump would have to outperform his polling significantly to get to McCain’s national vote total of 60 million—and the country’s population has grown overall by 11 million since 2008.
  3. Clinton is doing somewhat worse than she was. The Clinton campaign thought it had Colorado and Michigan in the bag and that it was closing the door on New Hampshire. Now NH is a dead heat, Colorado could go either way, and Michigan is surprisingly close.
  4. Trump is closing gaps but not overtaking Clinton. If Trump genuinely had “momentum,” which is one of those things everybody “knows” exists but no one can prove exists, we’d see the electoral-college map shifting in his favor. That’s not what’s happening. What’s happening is that some states have moved from being firmly in Democratic hands to being more questionable. Hillary’s potential for a huge electoral landslide is fading, it seems, as the states she once seemed poised to seize from Trump (Arizona and Georgia) may no longer be competitive.
  5. Early voting has been modestly positive for Clinton. In Florida, which Trump must win if he is to have any chance of 270 electoral votes, the early voting appears tied. That might seem bad for Clinton because Barack Obama led in early voting there in 2012 and black turnout is down. But dataheads report that many GOP voters are the type who have voted before on election day but are voting early this year, while Democratic voters are more likely to be first-timers. Word is she’s built enough of a margin in the early Nevada vote to ensure any Trump surge on Election Day won’t be enough.
  6. There are a huge number of undecideds for this late in the game. A poll in Michigan has the race at 42 Clinton-38 Trump, with 12 percent going to the third and fourth party candidates. As it’s unlikely 12 percent will actually cast their votes for Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, either the electorate in Michigan (and elsewhere) is going to be tiny—because those people will stay home—or something else is happening that is hard to decipher.
  7. Assuming no real late news, this is the race. By “real,” I mean something genuinely additive or subtractive that causes people to stay home on either side, not more details about existing scandals—unless Clinton is in fact indicted or Trump actually beats up a reporter.
  8. Tuesday will be a test. It’s a test of whether mechanics (Hillary’s superior ground game) can outdistance emotions (Trump’s slight margin when it comes to enthusiasm). It’s a test of whether you can win when people think you’re dishonest (Hillary) or if they think you’re unfit (Trump). It’s a test of whether large numbers of voters are going to act as though any outcome they do not like is illegitimate. That is no longer just a Trump issue, as the way Democrats and liberals are talking about the FBI sounds very similar to the rigging argument made by Trump. It’s a test of whether we can calm down enough to see through the wreckage of our civil culture and figure out how to take the next steps.
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Cyberbully Wife, Heal Thyself

After a week in which seemingly everything had been going his way, Donald Trump’s campaign had a misstep on Thursday. Fortunately for the Republicans, it did not involve the candidate blowing himself up with one of his trademark-improvised insults that have distracted the public from Hillary Clinton’s flaws. Instead, it was a rare appearance by his wife Melania that blew up the Internet yesterday with the sort of sarcasm and contempt that is usually reserved for the Donald.

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